Industrial commodities are bouncing off their bottoms and headed higher. What’s driving this move?
Simply put: The Fed has cranked up the printing presses and is throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at anyone who looks like they might buy toxic debt. This is unsticking the credit market for the short-term. And it’s also lighting a fire under equities and commodities around the world as traders and investors start to bet on a recovery.
I can give you a long list of reasons why this rally is temporary, and why the government’s best efforts to jump-start the economy probably won’t work. But there’s no arguing against the tide of money that’s flowing into the market.
And that brings up the question …
How to Best Ride
This Short-Term Rally?
I’ll leave picking bank stocks to others who have the stomach for judging beauty contests in leper colonies. I like commodities. And they could do very well in the short-term.
So let’s take a look at the Reuters/CRB Index, which tracks 19 commodities ranging from aluminum to wheat …

The CRB is energy-heavy. And sure enough, this breakout is being led by crude oil. This is happening despite the fact that we are swimming in oil — there was a buildup of 2 million barrels last week (twice what was expected) and inventories are at the top of their range. What’s more …
- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) refuses to make any more production cuts.
- U.S. motorists cut back on driving for a record 14th straight month in January. According to the Federal Highway Administration, vehicle miles traveled fell by 7 billion, or 3.1 percent, from January 2008.
- And the three leading oil forecasters — OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration — all predict that global oil demand will fall this year.