While I doubt the veracity of the current move up in oil (Mar 27: Thesis Buying 101 in Oil - Even Experts Mock It) this Bloomberg piece does parallel completely my thoughts over the longer term that we've been stating for the better part of a year; when the world economy does indeed return to stabilization, and then growth the lack of investment now will cause a repeat of what we went through in 2007 and early 2008 in prices of commodities. (Mar 15: NYT - As Oil Prices Plunge, a Frenzy of Drilling Ends) If indeed the "bull" case of "the recovery" comes true sooner rather than later it will be bemusing to watch the spin on how the unemployed Americans coping with the jobless recovery are somehow benefiting (green shoots!) from the surge in prices. And this does not even begin to discuss all the issues from the money printing and eventual return to much higher rates that the US will be forced to enact to attract capital once fear subsides. So enjoy the good times now (these are good times??) as another Kick the Can policy embarks - and then we can complain about the ill effects "another day". Watching American policy responses is like watching a frantic (drunken?) procrastinator lurching from one emergency to another.

Say what you will about the Chinese, but they are investing for the future (buy when prices are low); they have loaded to the gills their strategic reserves of oil (Mar 9: Reuters - China Government Oil Reserve Full), are bulking up on iron ore (Feb 9: China and the Baltic Dry Index - What's Really Going On?) and apparently have the equivalent of 18 Olympic sized pools of stockpiles in copper (Apr 6: Analysts Estimate Copper Prices Could Fall 21% in Q2) Meanwhile we are printing new US pesos off at a furious pace (or borrowing from the very same Chinese) to subsidize the business of Goldman, PIMCO, and the main line "big banks". Par for the course. One country pro-active, one country reactive.

• The credit crunch will keep U.S.