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Market Warning From Analyst B. Obama
By: Marc Courtenay   Friday, April 17, 2009 9:16 AM

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This week might have been the swan song for the beginning of the next leg down for the stock market. The main "singer" was no less than President Obama, who sounded more like he was reciting a "good news-bad news" joke than an economic forecast.

Here in Oregon unemployment has already soared to 12% and it appears to be getting worse. The state of Washington says they are on the brink of 10% unemployment. California will surely follow and probably already has more economic woes than it knows what to do with.

So no wonder that when Intel Corp (Nasdaq:INTC) posted stronger-than-expected results but gave only an informal revenue outlook for the current quarter, it sent its shares down 5 percent after hours on Tuesday. That's not a good sign by anyone's estimation.

Earlier in the day we saw poor retail sales numbers, combined with a sharp drop in wholesale prices, overshadow better-than-expected earnings reports from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), leading the Dow Jones industrial average down 137.63, or 1.7 percent.

Investors took little comfort from speeches by President Obama and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that there have been hopeful signs about the economy. That's because Mr. Obama said loud and clear that a sustained recovery won't be arriving quickly.

Yes, there might be light at the end of the tunnel, but that light might be a giant Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) earth-mover heading our way. Now if it is bought and paid for that might be good news.

Lest I be called a pessimist, I will point out that Tuesday's selling was orderly and extended a give-and-take pattern the market has followed since halting a steep slide over the first two months of the year. Some might say they're pleasantly surprised the major indices weren't down 3 or 4% on a day such as this.

Stocks have risen from 12-year lows since then on hopes that banks are getting through the worst of their problems and the economy might be bottoming out, though both the Dow and S&P 500 are still below where they started the year.

On the NYSE (NYSE:NYX) up volume beat down volume almost 2-to-1, but for every new high (7) there were almost 9 new lows (55). Ouch, and double ouch!

This is earnings season my friends, and it's a mixed bag at best.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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