From the March 6th intra-day lows, the S&P 500 has rebounded 28%. The reasons for the advance are obvious, and Wall Street is continuing to reprice assets. By this I mean, during the March lows, assets (stocks) were being priced for a economic depression. The current market rally is beginning repricing assets (stocks) for an economic recession.
Clearly, markets never move in a straight line. Short term technical indicators are overbought and a normal correction or pause to refresh should be expected.
As the markets begin to reach extremes during a recessionary climate (early summer), traders will take the opportunity to take profits. Common sense dictates that the economic recovery will not be quick, and in the quarters ahead, lowered earnings comparisons should not be that tough to beat.
This morning, Bank of America reported earnings that tripled most analysts expectations. The stock sold off however after the company set aside $6.4 billion in reserves to cover potential losses from bad loans.
The U.S. Dollar was stronger this morning, and this put pressure on commodity stocks and crude oil. Going forward, I think it is obvious that oil prices are going higher in the months ahead. We are well positioned to take advantage of any rise in oil prices with the PowerShares DB Energy Fund (DBE), U.S. Oil Fund (USO), and the Brazil Index (EWZ) in the ETF portfolio.
Over in the Fidelity Sector Fund portfolio, we own the Energy (FSENX) and Natural Resources (FNARX) funds as exposure to energy.
Here are our Top 10 ETF's for the week of April 20th:
1) DBA: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund
2) EWZ: Brazil Index
3) DBE: PowerShares DB Energy
4) USO: U.S. Oil Fund
5) VIS: Vanguard Industrials
6) DDM: Ultra Dow 30 Proshares ETF
7) IXP: iShares S&P Global Telecom
8) IYF: iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector
9) PGJ: PS Golden Dragon China Fund
10) SSO: ProShares Ultra S&P500 Trust
Here are our Top 10 Fidelity Sector Funds for April 2009
1) FBIOX: Biotechnology
2) FSPTX: Technology Portfolio
3) FSCGX: Industrial Equipment
4) FCYIX: Industrials
5) FSCPX: Consumer Discretionary
6) FSCSX: Computers & Software
7) FSCHX: Chemicals
8) FNARX: Natural Resources
9) FSENX: Energy
10) FSRBX: Banking
For the Week:
Now that another "Great Depression" is off the table, the stock market is showing signs of stabilizing.