NFX (NYSE : NFX) 1Q09 Pre Call Note - Exceeds Expectations; Maintains Guidance
By:
Zman Wednesday, April 22, 2009 9:21 PM
NFX continues to motor along like a well oiled gassed machine.
Couple of key takeaways from the quarterly release and @NFX update before we delve into the quarter:
- These guys are not growth for growth sake types, never have been, never will be. They are deliberately delaying completions in the Woodford due to low prices and will benefit from the continued reduction in completion costs when they do complete and will be selling gas from those wells likely at higher prices later in the year. At least that’s the plan and its a recurring theme you will see more and more as the quarter goes by.
- Improve differentials in the Bakken and Mid-Continent.
- Their capital budget and guidance remain unchanged. You’ve got to like the all caps comment on the capital budget that it DOES NOT reflect the cost savings they are seeing…their dollars are going further than they thought. Just how much further their budget will go should be a topic of discussion on the call on Thursday.
On to the quarter and update:
- The 1Q09 Numbers
- Production: 696 MMcfepd which is just above the mid point of guidance, up 0.5% sequentially.
- Costs:
- Lifting costs were much better than expected at $0.95 per Mcfe
- "major" LOE which is basically workovers and repairs came in 2 cents high at $0.18 per Mcfe, not a big deal at all and not surprising as many operators are conducting more workovers to maintian production.
- EPS of $0.85 (clean of a non cash impairment and a hedging market to market gain) vs $0.72 expected
- CFPS of $2.67 vs $2.31 expected
- Operating Highlights:
- US Onshore:
- Woodford Shale, Oklahoma (growth temporarily flattened):
- Recurring theme watch: due to low prices they are deliberately curtailing production. They are fortunate to have 90% of their acreage held by production so they can say, "Where’s the fire? Oh yeah, there isn’t one."
- 11 rigs, down from 12 at year end as previously annnounced; still their busiest region and fewer rigs WILL NOT mean few wells drilled as they have become more efficient in the play,
- Net production is 240 MMcfepd, down slightly from the 250+ MMcfepd at year end due to the completion deferals and natural declines,
- Despite the well completion delays, they are still reaffirming 20% growth guidance for 2009 here.
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