By Tom Dyson

Here's the magic number: 124.07. That's the number you need for shorting U.S. government debt.

Although the press has now set gold aside for hotter stories, I can tell you demand for gold coins continues at unprecedented levels worldwide, and production is still struggling to keep up. Take a look at these reports from the past 30 days:

The "long bond" is the nickname for the 30-year Treasury bond. It's the longest-dated debt instrument the U.S. Treasury issues. And on March 18, the Federal Reserve announced it would buy $300 billion "longer-dated" Treasury bonds.

This was the news the bond bulls had been waiting for. The world's most powerful central bank was going to pump $300 billion into their market over the next six months.

Long-bond investors must have thought they were about to get rich... but the market didn't oblige. There were too many sellers.

To make successful short plays, old-time traders will tell you, "Throw your rocks into the wettest paper bags." The long-bond market is a wet paper bag. The long bond is so weak, not even the Fed's printing press can hold it up.

If you own any long-dated Treasury bonds, sell them now. This market is in danger of imminent collapse. The next major stop for this market is 112.5, the lows of 2008. Take a look…

To watch the action in the long bond price, use the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond fund. The symbol of this fund is TLT. This fund is a giant basket of long-dated Treasury bonds. It's one of the largest and most liquid ETFs in the world. The movements in this fund represent the movements in the long-bond price.

Right now, TLT trades at about $97. As long as TLT is trading below $100, assume the long bond is in a bear market and the path of resistance leads to lower bond prices.

Good investing,

Tom