The S&P500 just broke out of resistance at 875, and the yields on the 10 year look to be rising straight to 3.7-3.8%. Here's what the gurus have been saying these past few days:

• Mark Hulbert: That bullish bandwagon. Commentary: Some sentiment measures showing too much optimism
  
  Bear-market rally? Or major new bull market? One of the distinguishing characteristics of the former is an excessive eagerness to jump on the bullish bandwagon. At the beginnings of the latter, in contrast, advisers are more reticent -- turning bullish more slowly and begrudgingly.
  
  It is worrisome that two out of four sentiment measures I analyzed are showing increases in bullish sentiment since the March 9 low that are markedly higher than the typical experience at the beginnings of prior bull markets.
  
  The bottom line? It is difficult, but not impossible, to argue that we are in a new bull market. It is more likely that we're in a bear-market rally


• Art Cashin : This rally is still somewhat suspect. I was looking for a little bit of a correction. This one looks like a rolling top is developing, kinda umbrella canopy. Tough time closing above 875. it would be perfect to pull back to 750 – 780, hold there and rally again. You don’t have to go back to retest that low.
  
  I'm also a little concerned about the volume recently, going down as the market's been going up. In the 'Old Trader's Handbook,' it says rallies in bear markets die on low volume. We may be rounding that top right about now."
  
  On his pullback prediction of a fortnight ago: "If you look at both the S&P and Dow, they're forming a sort of canopy top. We're within days of finding out...whether we're topping and rolling over."


• Albert Edwards : "Despite one of the biggest economics and profit collapses in history, US stocks have failed to get cheap in the same way that they have in Europe or Japan. My concern is that the US equity bear market has not yet fully played out.
  
  The current pop in the market is not dissimilar to the many bear market rallies between 1929-1933, where signs of economic stabilisation were met with 25% plus rallies... This optimism was subsequently crushed."
  
  A reversal will cause a "catastrophic loss of confidence" -- to date it has only been dented by poor news, not wrecked by it.
  
  I suspect these swings tell us more about market psychology rather than valuation. There are two distinct investment constituencies: value investors and hard-core bears, which have been pulling indexes in both directions.


• Charles Allmon has been saying for some time that a great buying opportunity is approaching, his current stock surge is strictly to catch what he sees as a bear-market rally. He still thinks the stock market could decline to 3,200-4,200 on the Dow by 2011-2012 -- and that it could cross the price of gold.
  
  But he's impressed with the strength of the March rally, and thinks it could reach Dow 9,000-10,000. However, he warns that a 10% retrenchment will cause him to bail out quickly.


• Jim Bianco : I don't think we are getting out of this for a long while. This has been a lousy stock rally.
  
  We believe these are classic signs of a speculative rally. Too many people were buying 'lottery tickets' such as Citibank at 99 cents and are now enjoying big gains. This has frustrated those that try to separate good from bad.
  
  We've done this twice in the last six months -- huge rally of 20-plus percent in stocks -- only to give it back to have a new low in the markets."


• Bob Doll: Almost a 30% move in less than 2 months so a rest somewhere along the way at best by going sideways. We think the market has turned the corner as the economy has gone from really bad news to the less bad news and that’s all that the market needs after a 60% decline. Do not think we’ll test new lows. It’s is possible we could go back to the 750-800 zone. I don’t think we’ll see 666 on this round. Believing in fact that the worst of the recession is in the rear view mirror. We’ve probably seen the lows.
  
  The fact that the market is going higher in the face of the swine flu news shows that the market wants to go higher.


• David Tice, of the Federated Prudent Bear : A lot of companies beat estimates by cost cutting measures. We believe this market is going to go a lot lower. This has been a heck of a bear market rally. Market will take out the 666 low. Economy is still in very very bad shape. Volcker said that economy has been functioning only due to the grace of government intervention. Market hasn’t priced in economic carnage when it is currently at 22 times forecasted 2009 earnings.
  
  We haven’t had capitulation. Recession is getting worse. Risk of the lack of confidence in UST. We still have stocks trading at 1.7 times book value. This market’s not going to bottom till it gets to below book value, 6- 10 times earnings. We have all the evidence in the world that because the market’s decline one year doesn’t give us the right to rally again.


• Stephanie Giroux, chief investment strategist at the brokerage TD Ameritrade: "I think the market rally that we're seeing is a little bit of false euphoria. When the market starts to digest that the less bad isn't going to be enough, you'll see it maybe take a breather for a while."


• Richard Russell: "On the bear market decline, we never saw the great values that usually appear at major bear market bottoms. The ‘great value’ area is the place where I would normally suggest that investors load up with blue-chip stocks. For this reason, I would prefer waiting out this rally or making a limited trade with DIAs (Dow Diamonds ETF) with stops. I continue to believe this is an upward correction in an ongoing primary bear market. I note that many observers are saying that ‘this is a market that won’t go down’. Believe me, all markets go up - and all markets go down."
  
  "The Lowry’s statistics do not favor the argument that a new bull market has started. Normally, based on the long history of the Lowry’s studies, when a new bull markets starts, their Buying Power and Selling Pressure Indices move apart by roughly the same number of points.
  
  "The fact - since the March 9 low, Lowry’s Buying Power Index has gained 57 points, but their Selling Pressure Index has only dropped 20 points. This is at sharp variance with all other bull market starts in the Lowry’s history. "
  
  "Basically, when a new bull market starts, the background is that the urge to sell has been exhausted. The pressure to press that market down further has disappeared. Thus, the market is left in the hands of those who wish to buy. In the current case, there is still a potential supply of stocks to be sold. In other words, the situation is not correct for the start of a new bull market, based on 76 years of the Lowry’s data.”


• Michael Santoli: This surge has been better, and more substantial, than a mere bounce. It has indeed been accompanied by plenty of less-than-terrible economic news. The rally has also out gained the initial phase of the 1938 rally I and others have cited repeatedly, due to its similarities with the 2008-2009 experience. If there remains relevance in the '38 analogy -- a powerful rally off historically depressed levels with the world still a mess -- then we should be in for a sideways-to-down phase at minimum here.
  
  There remains skepticism toward the upside fun, especially among professional investors who haven't owned enough of what has led this move, have little company-level conviction in the fundamentals and seem to want a chance to buy them lower. This is a net positive.
  
  At the same time, retail-tinged, somewhat frothy activity is percolating. This happens both in market head fakes and early in durable up trends, but it bears watching.