A more recent addition to my transformational technologies portfolio, Medarex, has scored a huge win. The company, along with Massachusetts Biologic Laboratory, will get $60 million upfront from Merck for license rights to a monoclonal antibody that apparently cures C. difficile infection. They are eligible for another $165 million in milestones as well as royalties.
Think about the service this company has done mankind. C. diff, as hospital diarrhea is called, is a growing cause of hospital deaths. Though many cases outside of hospitals are never diagnosed, we know it kills at least 30,000 Americans annually. Those who do recover, about 9 out of ten, can suffer horribly for months. Bravo to Medarex and all those who made this breakthrough possible by investing your money in this incredibly worth effort.
So what does this have to do with swine flu?
So far, swine flu is a minor problem compared to C. diff. Only one person in the U.S. has died from the infection. Survival rates, in fact, are far higher than they are for C. diff. Still, it could get worse, and governments are looking for a vaccine. So, just what are the financial opportunities?
I see nothing significant in the short run. One can never account for mob psychology though, and there have already been surges in some vaccine companies. In terms of fundamentals, however, I don’t think standard flu vaccines are going to make investors rich. The reason is that governments are the real customers for flu vaccines. On top of that, vaccines are an established industry and yields tend to be driven down by competition.
Those who are interested in playing swings should probably look into:
This does not mean there are not long-term flu-related opportunities.
