By George Huang
It happened faster than I thought possible...
Last November, after Obama's win, I realized one overlooked sector was going to rocket higher on government spending. And while all the suckers piled into alternative energy stocks – which were already at obscene valuations – I showed you a much better bet to pocket a 30% "boondoggle bonus" in 12 months.
Well, it's been six months, and we're up 36% on our health care IT trades...
Company Symbol Return since November 2009 P/E
McKesson MCK 3% 10
Cerner CERN 50% 24
Eclipsys ECLP 18% 36
Quality Systems QSII 45% 27
Allscripts MDRX 79% 21
Athenahealth ATHN 27% 55
HMS Holdings HMSY 32% 32
Average 36% 30
All of these companies are working to bring America's old-fashioned hospitals and doctor's offices into the 21st century. They're replacing mountains of paperwork with bar coding, electronic health records, and web-based billing services.
Obama wants to cut health care spending. He believes the best way to achieve more efficiency is by upgrading the current archaic paper trail to a state-of-the-art health care IT infrastructure. So he vowed to invest $10 billion a year over the next five years to jump-start the process.
For an industry with an existing revenue base of about $20 billion, Obama's $50 billion plan is a significant boost. That's why these stocks have chugged higher... while the S and P ended up essentially flat – after a stomach-churning drop to the March bottom.
Simply throwing a dart at the health care IT companies would've gotten you double-digit returns without much volatility. But now, the party is almost over. And it's time to bail on the sector...
Since we checked in on these stocks in March, novice investors have piled in, pushing shares to 52-week highs. As you can see from the table above, many of the stocks' price-to-earnings ratios are approaching stratospheric levels only seen in euphoric markets.
So if you own any of these companies, use tight trailing stops to protect your profits. And don't hesitate to sell.
I believe the long-term opportunity for the health care IT sector is tremendous. But at these prices, your money is better off in your pocket.
Good investing,
George Huang