Anycase, since they revised their quarterly results it's appearently in worse shape than previously thought. I'm expecting tha it's going to challenge it's 52 week low. If the market is switching into back to basics investing. Poorly recieved results will be punished and with nothing really holding this market up except hope and faith if enough bad quarters are reported, the bottom should drop out again. Until then, keep an eye on this one.

A grim trading statement from AIB yesterday evening, ahead of Wednesday’s AGM/EGM. What leaps out on a first read is the sizable increase in bad debt expectations since the March results. In a relatively short period, the bank has seen its “stressed” bad debt assumptions become central for 2009, significantly exceeding the “base case” illustrated previously. The €4.3 billion estimate bad debt charge (325 bps) is significantly ahead of the €2.5-€2.9 billion base case presented at the full year stage in March. It is also outside the €4 billion stress test scenario shown at the time of the results, implying that AIB is at worse case scenario, or the worse case they felt comfortable in presenting. The trouble coming down the track is also increasing at pace, with Group criticised loans ec(watch, vulnerable and impaired) increasing to c. €24.3 bn, up €9 bn. It implies that criticised loans at group level have increased from 11.7% of total loans (€15.5 billion) to 18.4% of the book at €24.3 billion.This is a nasty wake up call for AIB for what had previously been a glass half full bank

Note today that the QQQQ is in a peculiar spot: in a little box under the trend-line but bouncing for the second day in a row on the 200 SMA.

On the upside it still has room to 36 until next major resistance and on the down-side, selling might pick-up on any hard break of the 200 SMA or break of the 2 day low around 33.85. Our thoughts are that sentiment is still very bullish and any significant selling in tech (for example a move to 32) would be a good buying opportunity.