AAA announced this week that they expect a 1.5 percent increase in travel during the Memorial Day holiday weekend. AAA says about 11 percent—27 million people—will hit the road over the weekend.

AAA is expecting Americans will take advantage of a national gasoline price that’s about $1.50 per gallon less than it was just a year ago despite gaining about 20 cents in the past few weeks.

The forecast is significant because the number of miles traveled has been steadily declining for 16 consecutive months, before the financial crisis began.

The Federal Highway Administration says that travel on all roads and streets declined roughly one percent on a year-over-year basis in February—its most recent reported data—after falling more than three percent year-over-year in January.

Source: Bryan Christie Design, Esquire “Nate Silver: The End of Car Culture”

This downward trend is a change from historical patterns which show the number of miles traveled has increased by 60 percent since the early 1980s.

This time of year is seasonally strong for gasoline demand as we enter the summer driving season. The real thing to watch is whether we see road travel continue to strengthen after Memorial Day weekend has passed, especially if gas prices continue to rise.