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Time For The "Commodities Contrarian Contango" With Precious Metals And Energy
By: Marc Courtenay   Friday, May 15, 2009 8:30 AM

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Gold and Silver has had an amazing run since last December, and even more impressive have been the mining shares like Agnico-Eagle (NYSE:AEM), Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) and Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX).

My favorite mid-size gold miner, IAM Gold (NYSE:IAG) has virtually quadrupled off its low last November and almost doubled in the past 5 months. It's been a feverish frenzy, an overdue bubble that might be ready to burst.

On March 8th I tried to provoke the gods of Wall Street to create a huge stock market rally by conjuring up the term "Contrarian Contango" as a new term for paradoxically pretending you think the markets are going to keep going down when you sense they are about to go up. It worked beyond my expectations.

So now I will create a commodities-based potient called the "Commodities Contrarian Contango" by throwing out the outlandish notion that precious metals, oil and natural gas are going straight up from this point till the Spring of 2010.

In this fantastic proposal, I see the Silver ETF (NYSE:SLV) racing up to $20 a share, the Gold ETF (NYSE:GLD) breaking through the $120 mark and the Central Fund of Canada (NYSE:CEF) going straight up to $15 a share without skipping a beat.

Why it wouldn't amaze me if the United States Oil ETF (NYSE:USO) keeps on rising to around $50 a share, and the United States Natural Gas ETF (NYSE:UNG) surprises everyone and hits $35 a share by December. How about the share price of Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM)? It's going straight up to $80 between now and the end of the year.

Why am I making such an absurb group of predictions? Because I'm one of those fools who doesn't want to buy anymore of those great commodities, companies or names until we have an untimely correction. With my predictive track record (even a broken clock is right twice a day, and I was spot-on once, on March 8th, 2009) if I write that some investments are bound to keep shooting higher and higher it means a correction is imminent.

Just in case my "Commodities Contrarian Contango" backfires and we find gold, silver, oil and natural gas doing a moon-shot from current levels, I'm going to hold on to what's left of my portfolio, not to mention the "physical stuff" I've accumulated in depositories over the past 10 years.

But for those of us who want to buy more SLV, GLD, CEF, UNG, USO, USL, and DBO, not to mention more ABX,GG, AEM, KGC, GDX, SLW, SSRI, PAAS and my little darling IAG, let's hope I've aroused and angered the Commodity gods on Mount Arrogance and they drive prices lower starting real, real soon.

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please remember investments can fall as well as rise. And they will! - Advanced Investor Technologies LLC accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of this content.

Disclosure: I still own some SLV, CEF, USL, GLD and some IAG


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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