Bloomberg’s “House Democrats Consider Mandate for Employer Health Insurance” gives us some strong hints on the emerging structure of healthcare reform. Readers can go directly to
Bloomberg for the he said/she said, but the compromises are pointing to a laddered (3 layer) approach to making health insurance available to all Americans. The key word seems to be available, not mandated which is consistent with Obama’s presidential campaign.
The foundation will continue to be employer provided health insurance and all employers would be required to play or pay. This would be enforced through a payroll tax. Small employers would be able to purchase insurance though a national exchange from the start. Employees of larger firms that don’t offer health insurance will have access to the national exchange at some unspecified time after the start.
The government will set guidelines for the product offerings and price levels of the exchange plans. Non-employee consumers, otherwise known as the individual market, might not have access to the national exchange.
The second layer will be the expansion of Medicaid to more lower-income people. The third layer is what the private health insurance industry calls the nuclear option, the government plan. Pricing will vary by geography and coverage levels, but the government will set the standards of coverage. Whether private insurers can participate in the government plan similar to Medicare Advantage, has not been disclosed.
Bloomberg’s stating “the public option would be available to some consumers lacking insurance and would operate separately from the health exchange” implies the government plan should be viewed as insurance of last resort or high risk pool. The bipartisan comprise is to move the highest risk applicants to the government plan, allowing private insurers to still medically underwrite, and not enforcing any individual mandates.
The insurance industry appears to have won on their threat of no enforceable mandate means no guaranteed issue. The political will for an individual mandate is waning. Private insurers also have a partial victory with the tight limitation on access to the government plan.
With this more or less business as usual, there is little chance of cost reduction.
The New York Times’ “Health Care Leaders Say Obama Overstated Their Promise to Control Costs” is reporting medical service providers are already backing down on their commitment to reduce the
growth in healthcare inflation by 1.5%. If the removal of high risk applicants from the private insurers’ pools does not reduce premiums, look for a cram down on healthcare providers after healthcare reform gets started.


