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Retailers: Better Forecasts; Tough Conditions
By: Zacks Investment Research   Wednesday, May 27, 2009 11:59 AM

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Two pieces of data point to a better outlook for retailers: consumer confidence and earnings estimates.

The Conference Board's May consumer confidence index spiked to 54.9 in May, it's highest level since last September. Behind the increase was a 21.3-point jump in the Expectations Index, from 51.0 to 72.3. This suggests that consumers believe economic conditions will likely improve in the future.

Full-year earnings estimates for the retail sector continue to revised higher. During the past 4 weeks, 3 profit forecasts have been revised higher for every projection that has been cut - the strongest ratio of any sector. Within the sector, the largest number of positive revisions have occurred in Retail-Apparel/Shoe, Retail-Regional Department Store and Retail-Miscellaneous Diversified.

Not All Blue Skies Ahead

Though both pieces data are bullish, the underlying data is not so bright.

The consumer confidence survey uses a base measure of 100, meaning that current consumer sentiment is still pessimistic based on historical measures. In fact, a higher percentage of consumers described current conditions as "bad." Furthermore, nearly 45 still perceived jobs as "hard to get."

Retailers are also cautious. During Kohl's (KSS) first-quarter conference call, CEO Kevin Mansell opined that he expects "the consumer to continue to be reluctant to spend".

Several other retailers used the word "challenging" when commenting on business conditions. For instance, Glenn Murphy, CEO of Gap Inc. (GPS) observed that "the market conditions, from our perspective, continue to be challenging."

And those comments were from companies that analysts are raising profit forecasts on.

Still Some Good News

Not everything is bad. First-quarter profits for many retailers were better than feared. Same-store sales, though down, exceeded internal forecasts for companies like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS).

Additionally, many retailers, such as Zumiez (ZUMZ), effectively controlled inventory, which, in turn, helped margins.

2 Retailers With Growth

In midst of this mixed news, there are 2 retailers who both saw sales rise last quarter and have been the beneficiary of higher earnings estimates.

The first is Buckle (BKE). The teen apparel retailer enjoyed a 24.6% increase in net sales. Behind this growth was a very impressive 17.7% increase in same-store sales. The higher sales led to first-quarter earnings of 58 cents per share - 9 cents better than the consensus estimate.

Following last week's report, 6 of the 10 covering analysts raised their full-year forecasts. The revisions caused the consensus earnings estimate to reach $2.65 per share, versus $2.56 last week and $2.46 two months ago.

BKE is a Zacks #1 Rank ("strong buy") stock.

The second is Petsmart (PETM). The pet supply retailer saw first-quarter sales rise 9.5%, led by a 3.9% increase in same-store sales. Per share earnings totaled 37 cents per share, 7 cents above expectations.

The company also raised its full-year EPS guidance to between $1.42 and $1.52, two cents above its previous forecast. The majority of the 10 covering analysts revised their projections in response, sending the consensus earnings estimate 3 cents higher to $1.51 per share.

PETM is a Zacks #2 Rank ("buy") stock.

This interactive list allows you to see all of the companies, and their Zacks Rank, within more than 200 industries. Shown below is the Zacks Sector Rank List, which shows the trend in estimate revisions on a broader scale.

Sector Rank as of May 27
Sector This Week's
Zacks Rank
Last Week's
Zacks Rank
FY09
Revisions Ratio
FY09 Estimates
Revised Up
FY09 Estimates
Revised Down
Retail-Wholesale 2.56 2.58 2.96 817 276
Consumer Staples 2.82 2.83 1.48 331 223
Consumer Discretionary 2.83 2.88 1.37 444 325
Medical 2.86 2.83 1.34 984 736
Computer and Technology 2.92 2.91 1.14 1254 1099
Business Services 2.93 2.99 0.89 163 183
Conglomerates 2.93 3.07 0.48 21 44
Auto-Tires-Trucks 2.94 2.94 0.76 78 103
Utilities 3.02 3.01 0.92 237 259
Basic Materials 3.08 3.10 0.55 210 385
Oils-Energy 3.09 3.15 0.85 713 839
Construction 3.20 3.19 0.56 111 200
Finance 3.20 3.17 0.69 925 1332
Industrial Products 3.22 3.20 0.71 228 319
Aerospace 3.25 3.10 0.68 64 94
Transportation 3.33 3.38 0.43 117 271

Charles Rotblut, CFA, is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com. He can be reached at crotblut@zacks.com.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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