If Frank Quattrone could start over, he would be a
REIT banker. REITs staged a huge rally this quarter, almost $15 billion in new equity has been raised through 45 public offerings this year, and even
the Italians are descending upon New York to list new deals. With REIT stocks now being offered up like Cannolis on Columbus Day, and consumed almost as fast by shell-shocked but somehow still hungry investors, you may have one question:
What is Going On?
One reason is that REITs
cram down desperately need the money, and while not all are "twittering" on the brink insolvency, most will do almost anything for fresh cash. This includes diluting their long-suffering shareholders
bang zoom! to the moon, and cutting dividends
prego! to the newly annointed.
How is this happening? Some intellectual honesty is called for here: one reason is that REITs were simply oversold. Furthermore, no portfolio manager that I know of was willing to scale the ramparts for General Growth, no matter how many bankers GGP put to work pounding the phones, or how much they were being paid. Still, when there's an abundance of supply, demand needs to be stoked, and that's exactly what's being done. According to a portfolio manager I spoke with, almost all REIT secondaries are being sold in "over-the-wall deals", much like tech stocks were in the late 1990s.
"Over-the-wall" deals are pre-arranged sales with leading investors at discounted prices, executed overnight. The news hits the tape the following morning, and the stock jumps. Basically, if you're not "over-the-wall" you're stuck beneath it, especially if you're short. Indeed, one goal of the strategy - to scare the pants off of short sellers - is surely working. Nobody wants to be short a company whose balance sheet can be de-levered overnight, and that (re-equitization) is the other goal.
Unlike GGP, investors are flocking to these deals like moths to a porchlight. At a securities conference several weeks ago
it's just not true, there is a free lunch Mortgage REIT management presentations were standing room only. One of them,
Chimera (
CIM), had just used an $850 million secondary to convert itself from a smoking heap of 2007 trade confirmations into a potential Microsoft of Mortgage REITs.