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The Top 12 Indicators That The Economy Is Still Bad
By: Marc Courtenay   Wednesday, June 17, 2009 4:44 PM

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On a serious note, Eddie Bauer (Nasdaq:EBHI) has filed for Chapter 11 on Wednesday. The company is known for outdoor-like clothin. It is said that CCMP Capital Advisors LLC has bid $202 million in cash for its assets.

Other buyers may also make bids while the company is under court protection.Bankruptcy rumors had been swirling as Bellevue, Wash.-based Eddie Bauer struggled with slumping sales amid the recession.This is probably still the beginning of the end for many speciality retailers and "non-necessity" purveyors.

Consumer prices meanwhile rose less than expected in May and posted the steepest annual drop in 59 years, according to government data also released Wednesday, fresh evidence that the recession is keeping inflation in check.

The bad news here is that deflationary-forces are still prevalent, and if prices are not rising that's a sure sign that demand is waning.

Low prices will make it easier for the Federal Reserve at its meeting next week to keep a key short-term interest rate near zero, where it has been since December.

Bond yields ticked up earlier this month on concerns that signs of an improving economy would force the Fed to raise rates later this year. But most economists consider a rate increase unlikely until next year.

Another sign that the economy is still bad is that people like me are buying so-called "recession-resistant" investments like B&G Foods. I targed their "Enhanced Income Securities"(EIS) which trade under the symbol BFG.

Each EIS consists of one share of common stock (NYSE:BGS) plus $7.15 of 12% senior subordinated notes due 2016. Thus each quarter, when a dividend is paid (currently 17 cents) an EIS holder receives a 17 cent dividend PLUS $0.2145 in interest for a total quarterly payout of $0.3845.

I'm told that approximately half of B&G's shares trade as common stock, while the remainder are part of the EIS. So in a potentially deflationary economy where there's high unemployment, companies that sell "comfort food" like maple syrup and affordable foods like Cream of Wheat and Los Palmas Mexican foods most likely will do okay. Meanwhile we are comforted by the nice dividend.

I'm also holding more "defensive" positions like VZ, T, Novarits (NYSE:NVS) and Varian Medical (NYSE:VAR). This isn't like me except when I sense there are "more shoes to drop and more cockroaches in the walls" of our economy.

And now for the humorous side of my article. Yes, even in a bad economy we have to laugh and keep our sense of humor. So here are the "Top 12 Indicators that the Economy is Still Bad":

12.   CEO's are now playing miniature golf.
 
11.  I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail.
 
10.  I went to buy a toaster oven and they gave me a bank.
 
9.   Hotwheels and Matchbox car companies are now trading higher than GM in the stock market.
 
8.   Obama met with small businesses -- GE, Pfizer, Chrysler, Citigroup and GM, to discuss the Stimulus Package.
 
7.   McDonalds (MCD) is selling the 1/4 ouncer.
 
6.   People in Beverly Hills fired their nannies and are learning their children's names.
 
5.   The most highly-paid job is now jury duty.
 
4.   People in Africa are donating money to Americans. Mothers in Ethiopia are telling their kids, "finish your plate; do you know how many kids are starving in America ?"
 
3.   Motel Six won't leave the lights on.
 
2.   The Mafia is laying off judges.
 
And the most favorite indicator of all…
 
1.   If the bank returns your check marked as "insufficient funds," you have to call them and ask if they meant you or them.

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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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