The dollar has been publicly attacked on many fronts over the past three months. And endless accusations have been made that the U.S. is purposely trying to devalue the dollar to lessen its growing debt burden.
Sure, everyone understands the potential inflationary implications of the ultra-stimulative policy actions taken by the Fed. But inflation is unlikely to become an issue for quite some time. And when it does appear, then a judgment can be made as to how the Fed is managing it. Plus, other major countries have taken similar paths and will be facing the same challenges.
Nonetheless, huge stakeholders in the dollar like Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRIC countries), the fastest growing emerging market economies of the past decade, have used the opportunity to stir the global power pot — making threats to move out of the dollar.
These countries hold a combined total of nearly 42 percent of the world’s currencies. China has $2 trillion worth of currency reserves. Russia has $400 billion … India $260 billion and Brazil $206 billion. And combined they own nearly 32 percent of the U.S. Treasury market. So their threats tend to make some waves.
First it was China that called for a new world reserve currency just prior to the April G-20 meeting. Since then, those comments have been reinforced and repealed many times. And the issue was ignored at the G-20 meeting.
Now Russia is piling on, calling for a new “supranational” currency and recommending that the BRIC countries begin trading in local currencies, abandoning dollar-based trading.
Russian President Medvedev said, “We have to consolidate the international monetary system, not only through the consolidation of the dollar but the creation of new reserve currencies.”
But these comments out of the Russian administration have been balanced with just as many contradicting, dollar-supportive statements.
So is this simply political posturing or do these countries have the clout to make such assertions — and make things happen?
In reality, politicians do not determine a world reserve currency, markets do. And if the dollar continues to be the globally accepted currency of trade and store of value, then the majority of global governments and investors will continue to denominate capital in dollars.
Can Emerging Market Economies
Make a Credible Movement Against the Dollar?
It’s no secret that the BRIC countries want more global political influence. In fact, they explicitly asked for it this week.
This is their attempt to strike while the iron is hot, to win market share of global influence. And the dollar is the media whipping boy … a perfect political tool.