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Paired Trade: Buy Shoe Carnival, Sell Collective Brands
By: Alan Brochstein   Sunday, June 21, 2009 11:01 AM

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This is the 6th in a series of articles that attempt to identify relative value discrepancies between two closely related securities. So far, the first five (but not the most recent one - ouch!) have been modestly successful in aggregate, though it's a little early to be drawing conclusions:



BUY SELL


MPR NLC
13-Mar
7.30 11.99
22-Jun
10.21 16.00


39.9% 33.4% 3.2%







JNJ AGN
17-Apr
53.05 49.49
22-Jun
56.09 46.48


5.7% -6.1% 5.9%







COLM UA
1-May
30.36 24.00
22-Jun
32.17 22.05


6.0% -8.1% 7.0%







BCR ISRG
8-May
73.52 158.77
22-Jun
74.35 161.15


1.1% 1.5% -0.2%







EZPW AAN
5-Jun
13.09 32.85
22-Jun
10.88 30.99


-16.9% -5.7% -5.6%

For reference:

  • 3/14: Buy Met-Pro (MPR), Sell Nalco Holding (NLC)
  • 4/18: Buy Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Sell Allergan (AGN)
  • 5/3: Buy Columbia Sportswear (COLM), Sell UnderArmour (UA)
  • 5/10:  Buy C.R. Bard (BCR), Sell Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
  • 6/6: Buy EZCORP (EZPW), Sell Aaron's Rents (RNT)

    Today's idea is driven primarily by the sell, Collective Brands (PSS), which I find to be very expensive relative to a host of competitors.  I have written about Shoe Carnival (SCVL) in the past on several occasions, including late 2007, August 2008 and as part of a review of the first year of my Top 20 Model Portfolio (of which it is still a member).  I follow the shoe and shoe-related companies fairly closely and could select any number of other companies against PSS.  As you can see in the table below, it has one of the worst balance sheets but a fairly high valuation:

    Shoes June 2009 While I highlighted TBL and DSW as well, I chose SCVL as the other side as it remains so inexpensive. In addition to a pristine balance sheet and high inside ownership, this retailer had a great report recently, reducing absolute inventory and per-store again. The company isn't too exciting - focused singularly on selling shoes to women, men and children in low-income markets in the Southeast. Here's the comparison:

    Scvl vs pss Don't be fooled by the low PE - PSS has a lot of debt and EV/EBITDA is a more appropriate metric.  Historically, the vertically integrated PSS (which admittedly has more moving parts) hasn't really had better margins than SCVL, but note that the EV/Sales ratio is more than double that of SCVL.  PSS is scaling back, while SCVL, with its strong balance sheet, is taking advantage of great real estate conditions to grow selectively.  With the economic headwinds likely to be protracted, it makes little sense to pay up to own PSS when SCVL and so many other similar companies are as cheap if not cheaper with less financial risk.

    Disclosure:  Long SCVL


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    The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
      
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