US Week Ahead: It's All About The Jobs!
Despite the shortened work week, we have a rather busy schedule of US economic data releases, climaxing with Thursday's US employment data. Last month's payroll data came in well above expectations, showing the lowest level of job losses since September 2008. But, the big question remains, was this start of a trend or just a one-off anomaly. Other economic data in May sent mixed signals fueling growing uncertainty leading to a rally in treasuries. Many investors will be looking at this week's data for the answer, so expect significant volumes on the back of that report, with an almost certain rally in equities and a selloff in treasuries on better-than-expected data. Here is the rest of the calenda
Monday June 29th:
8:30AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The CFNAI is an index of 85 separate data sets designed to represent national economic activity and inflationary pressure. A reading of 0 indicates the economy is growing at the historical trend while a negative or positive results indicates the economy is growing at a below or above average rates, respectively. Given the volatile nature of this index the three month moving average is typically quoted. This index remains somewhat obscure in the mainstream media and is likely to have a minimal impact on trading.
Tuesday June 30th:
7:45AM: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Risk: Downside, Market Reaction: Moderate): This weekly index tracks same store sales at major US retailers, account for roughly 10% of total sales. Given recent data supporting an increasing US saving rates, this index could face some downward pressure.
9:00AM: S&P Case-Shiller HPI (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal/Moderate): Despite, the importance of US home price data in the current market, this index's two month lag marginally reduces this index's important as compared to some of the other more frequent housing market indicators. Nevertheless, large movements in this index could imply further deterioration or recovery of the US housing market, which could impact trading.
9:45AM: Chicago PMI- Business Barometer Index (Risk: Downside, Market Reaction: Marginal/Moderate): The Chicago PMI measures business conditions in the Chicago area; anything below 50 implies a contraction and anything above an expansion. According to Bloomberg, the market is currently expecting a reading of between 35 and 44. However, given recent weakness in the auto and manufacturing sectors I expect this number to come in at the lower part of that range.
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