This spring more than flowers were budding as companies and analysts were not afraid to raise their forecasts. For the first time in a long time positive revisions are outnumbering the negative.
Although the recent exuberance in the market has leveled off, it is still a much better time to be a growth investor than it was a few months ago.
More Good than Bad
At the start of the second quarter, 3 earnings estimates were being cut for every one that was raised. Now, as we near the end of the quarter, we are seeing slightly more positive revisions than negative revisions (1.1 increases for every cut). And though growth opportunities are not exactly falling into our laps, it is quite a bit easier to find growing companies that it was before.
EPS Momentum and Growth
A popular assumption is that growth stocks will have double-digit growth for the next several years. While this is true in many instances, the current economic environment is yielding fewer pure growth stories. There are, however, plenty of stocks with positive earnings estimate momentum - something that should be attractive to growth investors.
In essence, a company whose profit forecasts are being drastically raised by analysts can be considered as a growth stock, regardless of the EPS growth from the prior year. After all, what you are really looking for is better earnings that will, in turn, drive the stock price higher. And while, both EPS momentum and double-digit growth would be fantastic, our current economic climate is making finding both characteristics quite difficult.
Where's the Growth?
If you let go of certain assumptions, you can avoid a common mistake of dismissing certain industries that have been historically less explosive. Firms that exhibit phenomenal growth rates and/or rising earnings estimates can be found in any sector.
These companies are quite easy to find. I use a stock screener to help me take an objective approach to identify any company meeting my growth requirements, rather than trying to stick one specific industry or another.
Here is an example of a strategy I use to find companies with earnings momentum.
- Zacks Rank = #1 or #2
- Change in Current-Year Consensus > 20%
- PEG Ration < 1.1
This is just a jumping off point, so feel free to adjust the criteria to fit your style.
Growth Stock Candidates
Ruth's Hospitality Group, Inc. (
RUTH) is a good example of a company that is showing great EPS estimate momentum.
The full-year 2009 consensus estimate is now 32 cents, up from 18 cents a couple of months ago.