In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. Natural Gas Supply Slide Show - April 2009 Data
4. Crack Spread Update
5. Stuff We Care About - Another, bigger XCO deal
6. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

• $10KP:
  • $19,100
  • 56% Cash
  • No trades yesterday in this directionless pre-holiday, light volume market.

Commodity Watch

Crude oil rallied $2.33 to close at $71.49, a 10 day high, on the back of:

• Nigerian attacks,
• word that China planned to boost its version of a strategic petroleum reserves by 160% over the next five years
• and a rare, upward revision to EIA’s monthly figures for oil demand in the U.S. (April rose 1.18% which may sound small but amounts to 215,000 bopd).

This morning crude is trading up slightly.

• Nicky’s Comments Watch (from yesterday’s comments section):
  • Indices I am looking for the 930 - 935 area to stop this rally if its going to. That said its tricky here and a move above 843 has us going to new highs which is not exactly helpful as a comment I know as we will nearly be back at the highs!
  • Commodities may be giving us the heads up that in fact we are heading for new highs which oil powering away today. I do think oil is going to make new highs and I believe we are in v up which started at 66.36. We are now in iii of v.

Natural gas fell $0.16 to close at $3.94 after the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico fizzled and this week’s forecast for the U.S. turned much more mild than last week’s weather. This morning gas is trading down a couple of cents following yet another lackluster natural gas supply report from the EIA (see below).

• Imports Watch
  
  • Canada: 6.5 Bcfgpd, down 0.9 Bcfgpd from year ago levels
  • LNG: 1.3 Bcfgpd, up 0.2 Bcfgpd from year ago levels. Run away from the dock, you’ll be crushed by all the ships coming ashore. Ugh. Where is the gas tsunami? We are at mid year now and still no tsunami.
• Electricity Watch: Up 6.3% from the prior week, generation at the highest level of the year to date. 

Natural Gas Supply Slide Show - April 2009 Data - Ho Hum

Key Takeaway Watch:

• Overall U.S. Lower 48 production:
  • fell 0.08 Bcfgpd from March to April to 59.15 Bcfgpd.