Billionaire investor George Soros thinks the worst of the global financial crisis is behind us.
In a June 20 interview with Polish television, the Hungarian-born Soros acknowledged that this has been the most serious crisis he's seen in his lifetime, but said, "Definitely, the worst is behind us."
For those that like to interpret "Soros-speak," that's as powerful a sign as any that one of the world's most successful investors is "going long."
But is he wrong?
On one hand, the World Bank is busy roiling the markets with recently updated figures that project a 2.9% decline in global economic activity this year. Then there are the signs that the "green shoots" (how I've come to detest that term) may be more like weeds. Debt is devastating the developed world and the once-mighty G-7 looks more like a G-1 every day.
On the other hand, I wouldn't bet against him. When it comes to financial influence and acumen, Soros is about as powerful and prescient as they come. He's made billions over the years speculating on things that others simply couldn't see or, more often, didn't want to believe. He's as iconic as he is legendary for making big bets on market timing even if, by his own admission, he's not always right.
For the millions of investors who are tempted to interpret Soros's comments as bullish, that admission forces me to urge caution. In fact, my advice to proceed with caution extends to any comments that might be made by such other investment legends as Warren Buffett, or even Soros' former investment partner, noted author and commentator Jim Rogers.
I preach caution for three reasons:
- Despite the fact that each of these men is fabulously successful, the typical retail investor has no idea how much money they're betting on the upside, or what percentage of their wealth is involved in any publicized position.
- It's not clear what - if any - protective stops are being used so you don't know whether the positions they've taken represent core portfolio holdings or speculative trades.
- These revelations - disclosures - are usually made after the fact, which means that investors who may want to tag along for the ride are put in the risky position of having to make "me too" investments.
