Fed: Worry About Inflation & Unemployment?
The minutes of the June Fed Reserve meeting painted a rather mixed outlook for the economy. Though the recovery will be slow, some participants expressed concerns about inflation. At the same time, unemployment was projected to peak at a higher rate than previously forecast.
Like the April notes, there were not any real surprises. However, the June minutes contained plenty for traders to chat about. Most notable was the lack of an exit plan for the debt purchase programs and fears that the expanded balance sheet could lead to higher prices.
Here is the sentence that is likely to get the most discussion.
A few participants were concerned that inflation expectations could continue to rise, especially in light of the Federal Reserve's greatly expanded balance sheet and the associated large volume of reserves in the banking system, and that as a result inflation could temporarily rise above levels consistent with the Committee's dual objectives of maximum employment and stable prices.
The central bank revised its forecast for unemployment. The Fed now thinks the unemployment rate could reach 10.1%, which is 50-basis points higher than what April's projection called for.
Overall, the economy is expected to resume growth next year, with GDP expanding at a 2.1%-3.3% pace. The labor markets, however, will remain weak. This is consistent with what I have been saying: the recovery won't feel like a recovery to many Americans.
The stock markets have shrugged off the minutes and moved higher, as traders continue to express their happiness with Intel's ( ) earnings. A slower pace of contraction in the New York region and the smaller than expected drop in June industrial output are also contributing to the positive vibes.
It's worth noting that some of the day's best performers are also those with a high degree of economic sensitivity. Though Gannet ( ) topped expectations and Capital One ( ) experienced a slower pace of credit deterioration, the U.S. remains in the grips of a recession. Therefore, investors should look for companies that are actually seeing signs of better business conditions, rather than simply chasing the stock de jour.
The June minutes are available on the Fed's web site.
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