The S&P 500 is above the "shaky" 950 level, and Mr. Nasdaq cut through the 1900 level like a hot drill-bit through a butter ceiling of resistance.

Gold defied the $940 resistance level and almost closed as high as $950 on Monday. With Crude Oil easily clearing the $64-a-barrel level, silver took its cue as both an industrial and precious metal and bounced up 2% in one day closing at $13.62 an ounce.

Is this the proverbial "head fake" by the manipulating specialists who want to sucker us into a market top, or has the ground opened up revealing chasms of hidden market fortunes and wealth? As John Stossel used to say on 20-20, "Give Me A Break". But is this the "break" that produces profits or shatters the thigh bones?

 Are We Chasing Rainbows or Pots of Gold?

If you read my other articles and instablogs you know I'm a "Black Swan" kind of investor, and that I've paid dearly in the past for believing that "the trend is always my friend".

I'd love to ride the market elevators up to the next level, and  I'm currently about 80% into cash because I'd rather be buying when everyone else is selling in a panic.

Take a look at this one-year technical chart of the S&P 500 including the 50, 100 and 200-day Moving Averages. It sure looks like a break-out to the upside:

Perhaps on a short-term basis that is exactly what it is? But the question any investor has to ask himself right now is, "Is the downside risk worth the upside potential from this point going forward?" Are you a momentum investor or a value investor?

Today I wrote my colleague Alex Green a bit of a testimonial for following a suggestion he made back in March 2009, one of those times when the "earth-was-quaking" with fear and trepedation. Here's what I wrote to him today: