What I am worried about is what will happen when investors fall off the top of this wall.
"Let me take my chances on the Wall of Death" – Richard Thompson
The common adage has most every rally climbing a wall of worry. "If I buy now, I might get crushed for the fifth or sixth or seventh time in the past 10 years… but if I wait, the market might run on me, and I won’t see a decent entry price like this for years to come…"
An astute observer can easily see how Wall Street and Washington have been trying to push investors toward the latter position. For the past few weeks, we have heard endless examples of lagging corporate profits and failing economic numbers spun as "better than expected" buying signals.
Sometimes the stories are completely contradictory – like when the Fed claims one day that it has to pump out more cash so we can start adding jobs, and the next says not to worry about all that excess cash crashing the dollar, because the lack of new jobs for the foreseeable future will keep inflation under control.
"Well You’re Going Nowhere When You Ride on the Carousel"
The lyrics come from a wonderful song – "Wall of Death" by Richard Thompson, a songwriter and master guitarist out of London’s Notting Hill. Several of Thompson’s lines are more apt descriptions of the current situation than anything I could gin up on my own.
For example, for the past year or so, United Parcel Service (NYSE: ) management has sworn up, down and sideways that they would make their annual nut. Didn’t matter how badly they fared with each successive quarter. They would still spin out some yarn as to how the market was stabilizing and the next quarter would be soooo good, the company would up profits in the end.
So far, it has not been working out too well for them... or for the investors who have drank their Kool-Aid. As a result of all this smoke and spin, UPS earnings surprised to the downside by -2.4% last December and by a whopping -7.1% last March.