Morning Shocker: So Ambac (NYSE: ABK) Really Wasn't AAA?
A: Remember the days in early 2008 when Charlie Gasparino
was on the air every day with the 'bond insurer' saga and whether or
not they would get downgraded from their AAA rating! The insurers
adamantly backed their AAA standing and the credit rating agencies were
hesitant to downgrade them even though we all knew their portfolios
were garbage and the claims made on them would be tremendous. MBIA
Chief told us that insolvency risks were 'without merit'; MBIA trades at $4 today. UrbanDigs first discussed the bond insurers in 2007, why it was important if they were downgraded from AAA bullshit rating at that time, the saga that ensued in early 2008 and finally the affirmation of the AAA ratings for Ambac & MBIA in late February 2008 that was good for about 400 Dow points. Today we see Ambac get cut to Junk Status - out of sight, out of mind
was in full force in early 2008 as we now see beyond the garbage that
was dished out to all of us when the markets were on the verge of chaos.
The reason the bond insurer saga was so important was because if
some of these guys failed and/or lost their AAA rating resulting in a
big hit to capital raising plans and operations, the ripple effect in
the financial system would have made the problem worse - at the time
our banks were forced to take billions in write-downs and this would
have made the problem worse.
So what did we do? What we always do,
affirm that all is OK at the time and then later reveal that it was all
a bunch of crap. Since the markets are forward looking, it is easier to
digest the news later when it no longer is the center of the media
universe. Out of sight, out of mind, the way the markets like it.
Today's headline, "S&P Slashes Ambac to Junk on Expected Losses", no doubt is not news at all! Amazing isn't it:
"Bond
insurer Ambac Financial Group (ABK) this week estimated
statutory impairment losses on credit derivatives for its Ambac
Assurance segment rose by $1.6bn to a total $4.9bn in Q209.
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