Lehigh University International Relations Department Chair
Rajan Menon recently published an informative report for the
Century Foundation called
"The China-Russia Relationship: What It Involves, Where It Is Headed, And How It Matters For The United States."
The report provides a useful framework for conceptualizing the relationships among China, Russia, and the United States.
Menon makes a persuasive case that while the "strategic partnership" between Russia and China is based in large part on a shared aversion to unchecked American power, a full-fledged anti-American alliance is unlikely to develop.
The report refutes assertions by the British historian Niall Ferguson and others that Russia and China are engaged in a classic balance of power alliance to counter American influence.
Such an alliance is unlikely for several reasons. Neither Russia nor China believes that an alliance could effectively balance American influence given the United States' extraordinary military and economic advantages, China agrees with Joe Biden that Russia is a weak and declining power, and Russia envisions itself as part of the West and views China's rise with jealousy and suspicion. Furthermore, geographical proximity makes Russia and China natural competitors in Central Asia and the Russian Far East.
The bottom line is that both Russia and China benefit more from their relations with the West than from their relations with each other.
Menon's analyses of the United States' bilateral relationships with Russia and China are strong because he avoids a U.S.-centric perspective and explains how Beijing and Moscow perceive their interests and their relationships with Washington.
