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Questions And Concepts In Value Investing
By: Joe Ponzio   Friday, August 07, 2009 11:50 AM

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Sadly, F Wall Street's portfolio has gone from largely ignored to entirely ignored.

Of course, I couldn't ask for more out of a lazy man's portfolio. Being some 17% in cash brings me no joy; but, this portfolio has continued to outperform the S&P 500 Total Return Index (the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) by 19.7% a year, growing 4.2% annually versus the S&P 500's -15.5% annual return. That said, the F Wall Street portfolio is going bye-bye. Though I will continue to write about investing and individual companies, I can't maintain the portfolio in real-time (or even somewhat real-time).

Still, this "value investing" stuff works. And though we've only been going two years, if you don't believe by now that buying good businesses on the cheap and ignoring the markets is the way to go, it will probably never sit right with you. As Buffett says: You either quickly get the concept of buying $0.50 dollars, or you never do. Let's jump into some interesting questions from visitors, and concepts in intelligent investing.

Did You Miss The Recent Rally?

Two of the great things about intelligent investing are:

  • you never "miss the boat" because there's always going to be another boat, and
  • your results, though volatile, will be largely independent of the market's returns.

Think about that for a second. If you're lamenting the fact that you weren't fully invested in March and you missed the rally — that you "missed your chance" — think about who is promoting that idea, and then remember back not only to March, but to the dot-com bubble, burst, and recovery.

When the markets are flying high, they say that you have to get in — you're missing the action. When the markets are at their lows, you should "keep some powder dry" because they're going lower. Then, a massive recovery comes and everyone says, "We told you to buy! You missed the action!"

Interestingly enough, it's the same people that scream, "Get in! Stay in cash! We told you to get in!" They don't put a guy like me on television because I' not fast and actionable.

Reporter: Joe, what should investors do today?
Joe: Buy assets for less than they're worth.
Reporter: But the markets are [up/down] 40% in the last year, and you said that a year ago!
Joe: Yep.
Reporter: Thanks for another scintillating interview.

I won't name names, but it's all garbage. When I talk about Rose in the book, I mention some of the crazy markets she saw — up 40% in a year, down 50% in a year. Rose never concerned herself with the markets. She never timed anything. She paid good prices for good businesses, and ended up a wealthy woman.

But It's Different This Time!

Bull.

The "September Event" that occurred after Lehman Weekend was different that anything we've seen in 80 years. But that's behind us now (it was behind us a while ago). And even still — had the world economy stopped completely, had everything collapsed, your money market, your stocks, your gold ETFs — all worthless. Even those gold bars they're selling on television — they'd only be as good as the ammo you have to protect them.

If you're still looking for the end of capitalism and wondering how to profit from it, get in the ammo business. Otherwise, keep looking for good businesses at cheap prices.

At this point, the economy is still ugly. Unemployment is still rising. Foreclosures. Volatility. Inflation or deflation — take your pick. Rates will go up in the future, putting added pressure on stocks. These things — all of these things — we've been through them before, in varying degrees.

It's not different, it's just scarier because the internet and the media throw it in our faces more often than they could twenty years ago. And our next crisis, whenever that may be, will seem even more dire and hopeless because we'll have more information from more sources, adding to the fear and confusion.

Is everything we're seeing now unprecedented? Yes. But it doesn't change the game. It's not "different."

The markets work. Definitely not on a daily basis. Sometimes not even on a yearly basis.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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