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Paired Trade: Sell NTAP And Buy AKAM
By: Alan Brochstein   Saturday, August 15, 2009 3:44 PM

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This is the 8th in a series of ideas where I contrast a cheap security with an expensive one that otherwise shares some characteristics. So far, I am 5 for 7:



BUY SELL


MPR NLC
13-Mar
7.30 11.99
14-Aug
10.43 17.51


42.9% 46.0% -1.6%







JNJ AGN
17-Apr
53.05 49.49
14-Aug
60.08 54.38


13.3% 9.9% 1.7%







COLM UA
1-May
30.36 24.00
14-Aug
36.96 23.99


21.7% 0.0% 10.9%







BCR ISRG
8-May
73.52 158.77
14-Aug
73.62 223.80


0.1% 41.0% -20.4%







EZPW AAN
5-Jun
13.09 32.85
14-Aug
12.25 27.32


-6.4% -16.8% 5.2%







SCVL PSS
19-Jun
12.04 14.38
14-Aug
12.44 14.45


3.3% 0.5% 1.4%







HRL DIN
9-Jul
34.09 31.80
14-Aug
37.39 23.85


9.7% -25.0% 17.3%








Average: 2.1%

For reference:

  • 3/14: Buy Met-Pro (MPR), Sell Nalco Holding (NLC)
  • 4/18: Buy Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Sell Allergan (AGN)
  • 5/3: Buy Columbia Sportswear (COLM), Sell UnderArmour (UA)
  • 5/10: Buy C.R. Bard (BCR), Sell Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
  • 6/6: Buy EZCORP (EZPW), Sell Aaron's Rents (RNT)
  • 6/20: Buy Shoe Carnival (SCVL), Sell Collective Brands (PSS)
  • 7/9:  Buy Hormel (HRL), Sell DineEquity (DIN)

While I am not particularly excited about either the meager 2% average return or the mistake on ISRG, I will point out that each one of these paired trades was designed to be conservative.  I aimed for the better balance sheet, the lower growth, the more diversification and/or the lower valuation in all cases. 

Today's trade shouldn't draw some of the criticisms that past recommendations have elicited.  While Akamai ( ) and NetApp ( ) certainly aren't competitors, they are both leveraged to the exploding data growth theme.  Further, they are both Mid-Caps.

NetApp reports this week (8/19), while AKAM just reported.  Both these stocks are on my watchlist, and I am long AKAM in a portfolio I manage as well as in my Top 20 Model Portfolio

AKAM disappointed with its disclosure of a more aggressive pricing environment for its content delivery services.  I would note that the company has long been reducing operating expenses and passing along savings to its customers (lower GM).  I had never invested in AKAM until very recently and find it to have a valuation that should attract value investors.   NTAP has been struggling too in a more competitive environment for its storage solutions.  Here's the tape:


AKAM NTAP
Price 8/14/09 18.01 23.59
Market Cap (mm) 3112 7838
Enterprise Value 2695 6499
2009 YTD Price Return 19.4 68.9
2008 Price Return -56.4 -44.0



Income Statement

Sales (ttm) 825 3406
Sales growth ttm 14% 3%
Sales growth mrq 5% -6%
EBITDA (ttm) 350 296
EBITDA Margin ttm 42.4% 8.7%
Pre-tax Margin 2008 30 3
Avg Pre-tax Margin 2005-2007 25.0 14.0
FCF (ttm) 225 160



Balance Sheet

Equity 1681 1662
Tangible Equity 1155 935
Cash 617 2604
Cash/Equity 36.7% 156.7%
Total Liabilities 308 3810
ST Debt 0 0
LT Debt 200 1265
Net Debt/Cap -22.2% -45.7%
Liabilities/Current Assets 0.4 1.1
Liabilities/EBITDA 0.9 12.9
Liabilities/FCF 1.4 23.8



Valuation

PE F12M 11.3 18.6
EV/EBITDA 7.7 22.0
EV/Sales 3.3 1.9
(EV/Sales)/Pre-tax Margin 13.1 13.6
P/B 1.9 4.7
P/TB 2.7 8.4
FCF/Market Cap 9.0% 3.1%
Dividend Yield 0.00% 0.00%

 

While NTAP's margins are depressed, it seems that the market is betting AKAM's margins will come down a lot while NTAP's will rise.  NTAP has a lot of cash, but it also has a ton of deferred revenue on the other side.  This shows up in the three highlighted ratios regarding total liabilites.  AKAM is a much safer play in a weak economy, while both companies should prosper in an improving economy.  NTAP is a little overbought these days, but that's not so unusual in this market.  Both of these companies could be acquisition candidates.  My bottom-line is that AKAM is very cheap relative to NTAP.

Disclosure:  Long AKAM


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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