This is the 8th in a series of ideas where I contrast a cheap security with an expensive one that otherwise shares some characteristics. So far, I am 5 for 7:
|
|
BUY |
SELL |
|
|
|
MPR |
NLC |
|
| 13-Mar |
|
7.30 |
11.99 |
|
| 14-Aug |
|
10.43 |
17.51 |
|
|
|
42.9% |
46.0% |
-1.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
JNJ |
AGN |
|
| 17-Apr |
|
53.05 |
49.49 |
|
| 14-Aug |
|
60.08 |
54.38 |
|
|
|
13.3% |
9.9% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
COLM |
UA |
|
| 1-May |
|
30.36 |
24.00 |
|
| 14-Aug |
|
36.96 |
23.99 |
|
|
|
21.7% |
0.0% |
10.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BCR |
ISRG |
|
| 8-May |
|
73.52 |
158.77 |
|
| 14-Aug |
|
73.62 |
223.80 |
|
|
|
0.1% |
41.0% |
-20.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EZPW |
AAN |
|
| 5-Jun |
|
13.09 |
32.85 |
|
| 14-Aug |
|
12.25 |
27.32 |
|
|
|
-6.4% |
-16.8% |
5.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SCVL |
PSS |
|
| 19-Jun |
|
12.04 |
14.38 |
|
| 14-Aug |
|
12.44 |
14.45 |
|
|
|
3.3% |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HRL |
DIN |
|
| 9-Jul |
|
34.09 |
31.80 |
|
| 14-Aug |
|
37.39 |
23.85 |
|
|
|
9.7% |
-25.0% |
17.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average: |
2.1% |
For reference:
- 3/14: Buy Met-Pro (MPR), Sell Nalco Holding (NLC)
- 4/18: Buy Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Sell Allergan (AGN)
- 5/3: Buy Columbia Sportswear (COLM), Sell UnderArmour (UA)
- 5/10: Buy C.R. Bard (BCR), Sell Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
- 6/6: Buy EZCORP (EZPW), Sell Aaron's Rents (RNT)
- 6/20: Buy Shoe Carnival (SCVL), Sell Collective Brands (PSS)
- 7/9: Buy Hormel (HRL), Sell DineEquity (DIN)
While I am not particularly excited about either the meager 2% average return or the mistake on ISRG, I will point out that each one of these paired trades was designed to be conservative. I aimed for the better balance sheet, the lower growth, the more diversification and/or the lower valuation in all cases.
Today's trade shouldn't draw some of the criticisms that past recommendations have elicited. While Akamai ( ) and NetApp ( ) certainly aren't competitors, they are both leveraged to the exploding data growth theme. Further, they are both Mid-Caps.
NetApp reports this week (8/19), while AKAM just reported. Both these stocks are on my watchlist, and I am long AKAM in a portfolio I manage as well as in my Top 20 Model Portfolio.
AKAM disappointed with its disclosure of a more aggressive pricing environment for its content delivery services. I would note that the company has long been reducing operating expenses and passing along savings to its customers (lower GM). I had never invested in AKAM until very recently and find it to have a valuation that should attract value investors. NTAP has been struggling too in a more competitive environment for its storage solutions. Here's the tape:
|
AKAM |
NTAP |
| Price 8/14/09 |
18.01 |
23.59 |
| Market Cap (mm) |
3112 |
7838 |
| Enterprise Value |
2695 |
6499 |
| 2009 YTD Price Return |
19.4 |
68.9 |
| 2008 Price Return |
-56.4 |
-44.0 |
|
|
|
| Income Statement |
|
|
| Sales (ttm) |
825 |
3406 |
| Sales growth ttm |
14% |
3% |
| Sales growth mrq |
5% |
-6% |
| EBITDA (ttm) |
350 |
296 |
| EBITDA Margin ttm |
42.4% |
8.7% |
| Pre-tax Margin 2008 |
30 |
3 |
| Avg Pre-tax Margin 2005-2007 |
25.0 |
14.0 |
| FCF (ttm) |
225 |
160 |
|
|
|
| Balance Sheet |
|
|
| Equity |
1681 |
1662 |
| Tangible Equity |
1155 |
935 |
| Cash |
617 |
2604 |
| Cash/Equity |
36.7% |
156.7% |
| Total Liabilities |
308 |
3810 |
| ST Debt |
0 |
0 |
| LT Debt |
200 |
1265 |
| Net Debt/Cap |
-22.2% |
-45.7% |
| Liabilities/Current Assets |
0.4 |
1.1 |
| Liabilities/EBITDA |
0.9 |
12.9 |
| Liabilities/FCF |
1.4 |
23.8 |
|
|
|
| Valuation |
|
|
| PE F12M |
11.3 |
18.6 |
| EV/EBITDA |
7.7 |
22.0 |
| EV/Sales |
3.3 |
1.9 |
| (EV/Sales)/Pre-tax Margin |
13.1 |
13.6 |
| P/B |
1.9 |
4.7 |
| P/TB |
2.7 |
8.4 |
| FCF/Market Cap |
9.0% |
3.1% |
| Dividend Yield |
0.00% |
0.00% |
While NTAP's margins are depressed, it seems that the market is betting AKAM's margins will come down a lot while NTAP's will rise. NTAP has a lot of cash, but it also has a ton of deferred revenue on the other side. This shows up in the three highlighted ratios regarding total liabilites. AKAM is a much safer play in a weak economy, while both companies should prosper in an improving economy. NTAP is a little overbought these days, but that's not so unusual in this market. Both of these companies could be acquisition candidates. My bottom-line is that AKAM is very cheap relative to NTAP.
Disclosure: Long AKAM