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Is The Gloom Warranted?
By: David D. Moenning   Friday, August 21, 2009 12:30 AM

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While Monday's top story was focused on a possible market correction and investors’ gloomy outlook for the coming months, Thursday saw some bright news regarding the “official” end of the recession.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), a mix of economic indicators, rose 0.6% in July. It marked the fourth straight month of gains in the index, signaling that the economy has finally bottomed out and that the recession has ended.

The Leading Economic Index is based on 10 economic indicators. Of these ten, interest rate spread, average weekly initial jobless claims, average weekly manufacturing hours, stock prices, new orders for capital goods, and index of supplier deliveries all rose in July.

Other positive news came on Thursday as consumers seem to be gobbling up bargains as discretionary spending might be making a comeback.

Riding on dismal sales in Q1, and the breakdown of one of the largest automakers in the U.S., the auto industry received a much needed sales injection this summer in the form of the very popular "Cash for Clunkers" program.

J.D. Power and Associates announced that it predicts U.S. monthly auto sales to break 1 million for the first time in 2009. The company predicts roughly 1.1 million in sales, a number derived from 10,000 nationwide dealers during the first half of August.

J.D. Power also raised its 2009 total sales forecast from 10 million to 10.3 million. Sales prediction revisions have been "strongly influenced" by the Cash for Clunkers program, the company said.

Another program that has been red hot with consumers is JetBlue's (JBLU) "All-You-Can-Jet" program. For $599, buyers can fly as much as they want, wherever they want from September 8th through August 8th.

If you think that sounds like a good deal and are interested in getting a pass, you're out of luck. JetBlue announced on Thursday that the passes have sold out after only being available for one week.

The program ended three days in advance in order to maintain "ample flight availability" for its customers, a JetBlue spokesman said. While the company did not release any details on sales volume, it did say that the strong demand was encouraging, and that plans to implement the program in the future would be on a "wait-and-see" basis.

In sum, while investors are split on which way the market is headed from here, the broader economy produced encouraging signs on Thursday. With the LEI showing the recession ending, and two of the worst Q1 industries experiencing a sharp increase in demand, analysts are starting to question whether the speculation on a double dip in the economy and the predictions of a severe stock market correction is for real or just plain pessimistic thinking.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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