While Monday's top story was focused on a possible market correction and investors’ gloomy outlook for
the coming months, Thursday saw some bright news regarding the “official” end of the recession.
The Conference
Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), a mix of economic indicators,
rose 0.6% in July. It marked the fourth straight month of gains in the
index, signaling that the economy has finally bottomed out and that the
recession has ended.
The Leading Economic Index is based on 10 economic
indicators. Of these ten, interest rate spread, average weekly initial
jobless claims, average weekly manufacturing hours, stock prices, new
orders for capital goods, and index of supplier deliveries all rose in
July.
Other positive news came on Thursday as consumers
seem to be gobbling up bargains as discretionary spending might be
making a comeback.
Riding on dismal sales in Q1, and the breakdown of
one of the largest automakers in the U.S., the auto industry received a
much needed sales injection this summer in the form of the very popular "Cash for Clunkers" program.
J.D. Power and Associates announced that it predicts U.S. monthly auto
sales to break 1 million for the first time in 2009. The company
predicts roughly 1.1 million in sales, a number derived from 10,000
nationwide dealers during the first half of August.
J.D. Power also raised its 2009 total sales
forecast from 10 million to 10.3 million. Sales prediction revisions
have been "strongly influenced" by the Cash for Clunkers program, the
company said.
Another program that has been red hot with consumers is JetBlue's (JBLU) "All-You-Can-Jet" program. For $599, buyers can fly as much as they want, wherever they want from September 8th through
August 8th.
If you think that sounds like a good deal and are interested in getting
a pass, you're out of luck. JetBlue announced on Thursday that the
passes have sold out after only being available for one week.
The program ended three days in advance in order to
maintain "ample flight availability" for its customers, a JetBlue
spokesman said. While the company did not release any details on sales
volume, it did say that the strong demand was encouraging, and that
plans to implement the program in the future would be on a "wait-and-see" basis.
In sum, while investors are split on which way the
market is headed from here, the broader economy produced encouraging
signs on Thursday. With the LEI showing the recession ending, and two
of the worst Q1 industries experiencing a sharp increase in demand,
analysts are starting to question whether the speculation on a double
dip in the economy and the predictions of a severe stock market
correction is for real or just plain pessimistic thinking.