A March Bull Turns Bearish For The Long Haul
Anyone who reads TheStreet.com (TSCM) with any regularity is familiar with the Doug Kass. Mr. Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, and is a well known and respected financial market pundit. He was right on the money with his contrary opinion that the market was due for a rebound in March, and he even placed his S&P 500 price target at 1050. With Wednesday trading in the history books, the S&P 500 stands at 1028.12, which is certainly an impressive 54% rally from the trough. Its been a nice ride and now the market and the economy are in a completely different place more than five months after Kass’ call. Accordingly, Kass is updating his outlook on the stock market based on the new environment. We have reprinted some of his article, but it is worth reading the entire piece.
“It is important to emphasize that when I made my variant March call, I expected many of the conditions that now exist — namely, a resurgence of economic and investment optimism during the summer to be followed by a multiyear period of weak investment returns. Specifically, I expected a mini production boom and an asset allocation away from bonds and into stocks to be embraced and heralded by investors, who would only be disappointed again in the fall as it becomes clear that a self-sustaining economic recovery is unlikely to develop.
My view remains that it is different this time.
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