Brazil: Reactions To A Proposed Energy Law
By:
Stratfor Wednesday, September 02, 2009 3:15 PM
After a government review that began in 2007,
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Aug. 31 unveiled a
much-anticipated proposal for a
new oil law that will govern the exploration and development of the country's
massive deep-sea pre-salt oil reserves.
The new regulatory framework was highly anticipated as Brazil's
pre-salt reserves — oil deposits located in the sea bed under thick
layers of salt — are estimated to contain anywhere from 14 to 100
billion barrels of oil and could turn
Brazil into a major oil exporter in coming years.
Stock prices in Brazil's state-run energy company Petroleo
Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) (NYSE: PBR) plummeted on the release of the proposal,
with the company losing 3.6 percent of its market value (about $7
billion) on Aug. 31 alone (though that was mitigated by a 1.4 percent
rebound on Sept. 1). Although Brasilia might not actually pass the new
energy law until next year, it is clear that Brazil sees its pre-salt
oil reserves as a strategic national asset that needs to be protected
by the state, even at the risk of slowing the influx of foreign capital
and technology that the country is trying to attract to boost the
reserves' development.
The most obvious aspect of the proposed law is its (fully expected)
favoritism toward Petrobras, one of the world's up-and-coming energy
companies and a majority state-owned enterprise. Petrobras would
operate all of Brazil's pre-salt oil development projects. The
government, through the National Petroleum Agency, would have the
option of awarding a contract solely to Petrobras or asking for public
bids to bring in other companies to share in projects. In public bids,
companies would join in production-sharing agreements with the
government rather than only acquiring concessions and paying royalties
on revenues, as they did previously. This is meant to ensure that
Petrobras gains knowledge and experience from outsiders who may bring
better technology and expertise to the table when they sign on to a
production agreement. Petrobras would be guaranteed a minimum 30
percent stake in any consortium (though this does not apply to
pre-existing contracts).
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