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Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX): FCX Could Raise Its Overall 2010 Copper Sales Guidance
By: Notable Calls   Thursday, September 03, 2009 8:47 AM

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One of the more interesting calls today comes from FBR Capital:

FBR is raising their tgt on Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. (NYSE:FCX) to $87 from $69 and reiterating their Outperform rating on the stock.

According to the firm the higher price target primarily reflects their view that FCX would raise its overall 2010 copper sales guidance by about 12% (or, approximately, a 45% increase in North America) after recent improvement in leading economic indicators for the developed economies, such as the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Furthermore, FBR believes the economics of increased production are also justified at current copper prices and with the strong outlook in 2010. Based on their revised commodity price deck and increased production estimates (2010 only), they also increase their 2009 and 2010 EPS/EBITDA estimates by about 24%/16% and 26.5%/12%. Firm recommends that investors take advantage of market volatilty to accumulate FCX shares. Their price target of $87 is based on 6.0x revised 2010 EV/ EBITDA, and the stock is currently trading at 4.4x 2010E EV/EBITDA.

Model North American operations to ramp up in early 2010. FBR is increasing their estimates for FCX's North American 2010 copper sales by 45%, from 1,000M lbs to 1,450M lbs, reflecting their view that FCX's management will decide to ramp up its high-cost North American operations, which it partially curtailed in 2H08 and 1Q09. Firm believes that 1) the improving macroeconomic indicators in the developed world suggest sustainability of demand and 2) the runup in commodity prices justifies the economics of North American operations. Both factors should provide management enough comfort to take decisions in favor of restarting its curtailed capacity in North America.

Raising 2010 copper price forecast. FBR is increasing their 2010 copper price outlook modestly by $0.10/lb to $2.70/lb, which reflects the increased marginal costs as some high-cost mines are brought back on line to meet the improved demand levels.

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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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