If you did up the Labor Day weekend
right, Friday probably seems like a distant memory. So, in light of the
fact that Friday offered us the Big Kahuna of economic reports, which
seemed to provide something for everyone, we should probably take a
moment to review the details.
If you will recall, the Labor Department reported
that the economy lost just 216,000 jobs in August, which was slightly
better than the expectations for a loss of 233,000 as well as July's
total of 247,000. However, the big news in the report was the
Unemployment Rate jumping to 9.7% from 9.4%, which is the highest level
since June 1983. Thus, the bottom line is the economy continued to lose
jobs, albeit at a slower pace.
The bear camp jumped all over the big increase in
the unemployment rate and suggested that this would be the top story on
all the nightly news programs and that the data was not going to sit
well with the consumer. And given that the all-important holiday
shopping season is due to get started in a couple of months, the worry
is that the consumer is likely to remain cautious as a result of the
report.
If you dig into the household side of the report,
the numbers were also a bit discouraging. The survey showed that
392,000 fewer people counted themselves as employed, while 466,000 more
people classified themselves as out of work. Thus, the total number of
unemployed jumped to 14.9 million, which is (a) up 123% since the cycle
low in December 2006 and (b) the highest level in the postwar period.
But, you know the way the game works on Wall
Street; it's not necessarily the news that counts, but whether the data
came in above or below expectations. So, with the trend of job losses
clearly in decline, the bulls argued that at the current pace, we'd see
the job losses come to a halt and quite possibly see actual job growth
in either November or December of this year.
This upbeat outlook, when combined with the IMF raising their forecast for global growth in 2009 and 2010, China's banking
regulators talking down concerns about tighter credit conditions,
Novellus (NVLS) saying good things about the upcoming quarter, and a
long holiday weekend, was enough to get the shorts to run for cover and
fuel a pretty decent rally.
So, will Friday's rebound provide the spark needed
to overcome last week's pullback? Based on the fact that both Asian and
European markets have advanced nicely since we saw them last, it looks
like the answer might be yes.
Turning to this morning, we don't have any economic
data to review today. However, we will want to watch for the results of
the Treasury's auction of 3-year notes at 1:00 this afternoon.
Running through the rest of the pre-game
indicators, as we mentioned, the foreign market are higher across the
board and also advanced on Monday. Crude futures are moving up with the
latest quote showing oil trading higher by $1.66 to $69.68. On the
interest rate front, we've got the yield on the 10-yr trading up to
3.45%, while the yield on the 3-month T-Bill is trading at 0.13%. And
finally, with about 45 minutes before the bell, stock futures in the
U.S. are pointing to a higher open. The Dow futures are currently ahead
by about 63 points; the S&P's are up about 8 points, while the
NASDAQ looks to be about 12 points above fair value at the moment.