logo

Monday Morning Commentary : Something For Everyone
By: David D. Moenning   Tuesday, September 08, 2009 9:12 AM

Vote for next session
The next market session will close:

If you did up the Labor Day weekend right, Friday probably seems like a distant memory. So, in light of the fact that Friday offered us the Big Kahuna of economic reports, which seemed to provide something for everyone, we should probably take a moment to review the details.

If you will recall, the Labor Department reported that the economy lost just 216,000 jobs in August, which was slightly better than the expectations for a loss of 233,000 as well as July's total of 247,000. However, the big news in the report was the Unemployment Rate jumping to 9.7% from 9.4%, which is the highest level since June 1983. Thus, the bottom line is the economy continued to lose jobs, albeit at a slower pace.

The bear camp jumped all over the big increase in the unemployment rate and suggested that this would be the top story on all the nightly news programs and that the data was not going to sit well with the consumer. And given that the all-important holiday shopping season is due to get started in a couple of months, the worry is that the consumer is likely to remain cautious as a result of the report.

If you dig into the household side of the report, the numbers were also a bit discouraging. The survey showed that 392,000 fewer people counted themselves as employed, while 466,000 more people classified themselves as out of work. Thus, the total number of unemployed jumped to 14.9 million, which is (a) up 123% since the cycle low in December 2006 and (b) the highest level in the postwar period.

But, you know the way the game works on Wall Street; it's not necessarily the news that counts, but whether the data came in above or below expectations. So, with the trend of job losses clearly in decline, the bulls argued that at the current pace, we'd see the job losses come to a halt and quite possibly see actual job growth in either November or December of this year.

This upbeat outlook, when combined with the IMF raising their forecast for global growth in 2009 and 2010, China's banking regulators talking down concerns about tighter credit conditions, Novellus (NVLS) saying good things about the upcoming quarter, and a long holiday weekend, was enough to get the shorts to run for cover and fuel a pretty decent rally.

So, will Friday's rebound provide the spark needed to overcome last week's pullback? Based on the fact that both Asian and European markets have advanced nicely since we saw them last, it looks like the answer might be yes.

Turning to this morning, we don't have any economic data to review today. However, we will want to watch for the results of the Treasury's auction of 3-year notes at 1:00 this afternoon.

Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, as we mentioned, the foreign market are higher across the board and also advanced on Monday. Crude futures are moving up with the latest quote showing oil trading higher by $1.66 to $69.68. On the interest rate front, we've got the yield on the 10-yr trading up to 3.45%, while the yield on the 3-month T-Bill is trading at 0.13%. And finally, with about 45 minutes before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are pointing to a higher open. The Dow futures are currently ahead by about 63 points; the S&P's are up about 8 points, while the NASDAQ looks to be about 12 points above fair value at the moment.


(0)
No Comments
Post Comment
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
   
 
 
 
 
   
 

The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
Advertisement
Popular Articles
Related Press Releases
Advertisement
Partner Center
Recent Articles by David D. Moenning



Subscribe to Email Alerts rss feed or RSS feeds rss feed for articles from more than 500 contributors, press releases, SEC filings and full text news from more than four thousand sources.
Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, market data is provided by AlphaTrade. , and Commentary and Press Releases provided by Quotemedia