Ual Corp (NASDAQ: UAUA): Upgraded To Overweight At JP Morgan; Positive Comments From Barclays
Airlines and particularly Ual Corp (NASDAQ:
UAUA) are getting are getting some commentary this morning:
- Barclays is out saying they think many underestimate the potential for a significant airline revenue recovery, particularly for the legacy carriers. With recovery expectations muted, they think even a relatively modest recovery would pave the way for a profitable 2010 and materially higher share prices. They continue to favor legacy airlines over low-fare carriers, with top picks DAL and UAUA, the former getting no respect lately. Among the low-fare airlines, the firm also favors ALGT and JBLU.
Firm believes current thinking on the industry revenue environment and potential for recovery is very small relative to the potential. They understand that companies need to plan for a revenue environment that remains very soft. They also understand that revenue has been headed in a single direction (down) the entire year. While it's easy to extrapolate these negative trends for a considerable period of time, the firm urges investors to consider two things
1) the market and the companies had little visibility into the speed or magnitude of declines in revenue earlier in the year (Figure 1), and
2) the history has several examples of rapid recovery off depressed bases (Figure 2).
July industry results combined with recent August revenue disclosures point to some evidence that a recovery in airline revenue has begun. They think near-term revenue data is likely to surprise many to the upside. Combined with increasingly easier comparisons, they expect those in the more bearish revenue camp will be forced to begin modeling some revenue recovery
Barclay's current forecast for UAUA calls for 200% raise in share price.
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