by Dr. Scott Brown, Advisory Panelist
It's official: You can reduce your investment risk simply by chucking darts at a list of stocks, then buying them.
That's if you believe a Nobel economist, of course. His crude "experiment" was the start of "modern portfolio theory" decades ago. The downside, however, was that with a reduction of risk came a dampening of profits. So scratch that idea.
How about this? A startling study in the late 1970s showed that owning a portfolio of large U.S. companies with international divisions drops your risk 10% below a domestic stock portfolio. Much better. But that wasn't the eye-popper…
The study also found that owning stocks in international companies cuts your risk in half…
Take that, "efficiency" theorists! Yet the stuffy professors still tried to refute these results. It was a losing battle, though, as more studies emerged, laden with more evidence that international stocks reduce risk.
But the most startling thing? The studies indicate that adding international stocks to your domestic portfolio may even increase your average profits.
But how do you buy stocks in foreign companies trading in London, Hong Kong, or São Paulo? By investing in ADRs… let me explain.
How to Go Overseas Without Even Getting On a Plane
Let's say you want to buy shares of an English company, trading on the FTSE-100 index. You'd have to convert your cash to pounds, buy the stock, wait to sell it at a profit, then convert it all back to U.S. dollars.
If the greenback weakened, you'd make a profit on the stock but lose on the conversion!
In a word: Ugh.
This is why the vast majority of investors buy a managed international mutual fund. This allows the "experts" to run overseas with your bag of cash and make the investments for you.
But is this really smart?
As early as the 1960s, some economists confirmed that fund managers can't forecast stock prices well enough to cover their own expenses, let alone make you a profit. In the end, all economists – regardless of their background – agreed that the performance of a managed mutual fund is worse than throwing darts at a list.
Here's a better way…
Investing in ADRs: Harness JP Morgan's Secret Weapon
In 1927, a chain of retail stores wanted to list on the NYSE.
Problem was, all the stores were in England!
Even for JP Morgan – the greatest investment banker of all time – this one was tricky. But he came up with a solution: He bought a big block of the retailer's shares on the London Stock Exchange and put them in a trust.
Then he sold shares of the trust on the NYSE. These shares were called American Depository Receipts – or ADRs for short.
The company was Selfridges. And with Americans able to invest in a well-managed foreign company with far less risk, the shares sold like hotcakes.