Dividend Stocks Are My Conviction
For many investors, there is no clear conviction as to how they should invest. Today's investments are guided by what was read yesterday, and the popular media is constantly churning out new and different ideas. Granted it makes for some "interesting" reads, but it certainty is no way to run a portfolio.
Recently, I read a Wall Street Journal article on "Rethinking Stocks' Starring Role" in our portfolio. It presented the same set of facts we have seen in numerous other articles on how bonds have recently out-performed stocks. That is not what caught my attention, but instead it was the numerous directions the article took the reader. In the end, virtually anything you were doing, except practicing fundamental asset allocation, you could find support for in this article. Here are a few excerpts:
- "Asset allocation should be ‘more dynamic'. There are a lot of opportunities on the other side of the balance sheet." Andrew Silverberg, co-manager of Alger Balanced Fund referring to corporate bonds
- "There's no single answer to the question of how a typical investor should allocate assets. But he adds that most investors should put at least 20% into alternatives. " Rob Arnott, chairman of money manager Research Affiliates in Newport Beach, Calif.
- For investors with a heavy stock exposure, "this is the perfect time to move elsewhere," including alternative assets such as commodities, Mr. Arnott says.
- "Any kind of strict percentage allocation doesn't make sense," says Steven Romick, manager of FPA Crescent Fund. "It's just ridiculous." FPA Crescent has a go-anywhere mandate.
- "A lot of people who said they wanted to be aggressive (in investment approach) realized last year that they weren't comfortable with that," he says, adding that he increased some investors' stock allocations in the first half of August.
And finally, to keep from totally alienating the stock investors:
- Still, many financial pros continue to believe that stocks should be the biggest element of a long-term portfolio. Ned Notzon, chairman of the asset-allocation committee at T. Rowe Price Group Inc., believes stocks will generally beat bonds over long time periods. And he says it's hazardous to try to sidestep periods of weak stock performance and then heavily invest in shares in the good times.
If you invest without conviction, it is a recipe for disaster. Time has shown that emotion is an investors worse enemy. To paraphrase Warren Buffett, emotion will make you greedy when you should be fearful and fearful when you should be greedy.
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