...and I am concerned about my re-election prospects in 2010. I have been a member of Congress for seven years now and have developed a good reputation as a reform-minded economic realist willing to listen to a number of competing economic ideas. However, right now I am a bit concerned about my likely 2010 rival, a respected district attorney known for being tough on crime and equally pragmatic ideologically speaking.
This past week, President Obama delivered a worthy speech on the need for reform in the financial sector. I agree with some of the broad strokes. But, quite frankly, the speech lacked in detail. What's more is my economic advisors have counselled me that the worst of the panic is over. They tell me stimulus – fiscal and monetary – has worked and we are on the road to a welcome though weak recovery.
Meanwhile, I have been informed that a number of well-connected people in the financial industry are considering backing my potential 2010 rival. I have had enough money problems on my plate due to healthcare targeting my district. As I desperately need more money for my re-election campaign, getting on the finance industry's bad side is something I do not want to happen.
What do I do?
The inside the beltway mentality
Well, unless the economy tanks between now and 2010, I would be a fool to support reforms in the financial sector, which could jeopardize my seat in Congress. Mind you, I am truly a reform-minded individual and it has been a part of my platform since I was elected in 2002. I don't like Wall Street fat cats earning tens of millions each while people lose their homes and jobs. But, right now, everyone I hear says recovery is here. Retail sales in August just came in, up a massive 2.7% last month. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has come out and said outright that recovery has arrived. I am no economist, so I believe them. That's why I am loath to even mention financial sector reform – presently being demonized by my 2010 rival as big government.
Earlier this year as things were falling apart, I had decided to inform myself. I read a number of well-respected financial blogs – some of which predicted imminent economic collapse if our big banks were not nationalized. These bloggers claimed that a depression was upon us and drastic government intervention was necessary – and, again, I tended to believe them. After all, one was a recent Nobel Prize winner and another was a winner just a few years ago.
But these individuals have since been discredited, as events have not played out as they suggested. So, as we head into 2010, I am much more interested in reining in uncontrolled government spending – as this is something about which my constituency seems to care. With recovery upon us, there is zero appetite for financial reforms in Washington and I am certainly not going to put a target on my back by trying to get some passed.
Edward here. A lot of politicians are probably thinking along these lines right now. And quite frankly, this makes sense from a political perspective. If you are looking for reform in the financial sector, the moment has passed. And only to the degree that the underlying weaknesses in the global financial system are made manifest and threaten the economy will we see any appetite for reform amongst politicians. So, as I see it, the Obama administration has missed the opportunity for reform.
Another interpretation of events
Irrespective, I believe the need for reform is clear.