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Obama And Market Regulation
By: Zacks Investment Research   Tuesday, September 15, 2009 8:18 PM

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In general I liked the speech, but think that the steps he has proposed are, at best, only a good first step. I hope that the proposals are strengthened in Congress, but have zero hope of that happening. More likely they will be watered down significantly. The end result is that we will face another market meltdown in the future; the only question is when.

Regulation of the financial industry is one of those extremely important, yet dry and dull subjects, that the general public will ignore, and the lobbyists will own. The bank lobby is extremely powerful and is going to fight things tooth and nail. Obama got a distinctly cool reception from the financial executives in the audience, with only a single round of applause.

However, one year after the government spent hundreds of billions to save the banking system, not a single major bank CEO even bothered to show up for the speech. The sense of entitlement and the lack of gratitude by Wall Street is simply stunning. Look for a big push by the industry to preserve the status quo, probably with folksy TV ads full of dishonest scare tactics. It could include stuff about killing innovation and all that, attempting to convince people they are safer without someone in D.C. trying to protect consumers from abusive financial products. How many really useful financial innovations have there been in the last 30 years that have helped consumers?

The big useful innovations like credit cards and ATMs all happened back in the 1960s and 1970s, when banks were more closely regulated. Back in the days of 3-6-3 banking, when a banker would borrow at 3% in the form of checking and savings deposits, lend at 6%, and be on the first tee by 3 PM. When that was the shape of banking, we didn't have to worry about meltdowns.

On the other hand, bankers were just members of the upper middle class, not regularly bringing home 8 figure compensation packages. The proposed consumer protection agency for financial products is probably the most important part of the reform package. It is also the one that the banks are going to try the hardest to kill. It is the acid test if the reform package is real, or just a fig leaf. I'll go one step further and say that any congressman of either party who votes against this is representing his big campaign contributors on Wall Street, and not the interests of his or her constituents.

Some of the proposals that Obama has made sound reasonable and possibly workable, but the real devil is in the details. He will attempt to solve the 'too big to fail' problem by requiring the bigger, TBTF banks to hold higher levels of capital than smaller non-systemically important banks. The big question is how much higher?

If it is only a nominal difference, then the big banks will be in a great position.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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