(By Horacio Marquez)In the last few months we have seen a very strong stock market rally. The market has recovered from highly distressed levels and posted exorbitant gains. In addition the "wall of money" from the U.S. Federal Reserve has pushed risk-prone investors back into the market, pushing its general level up.
You see, the massive fiscal stimuli and ultra-easy money from the Fed does indeed have real effects on the economy. Whether you want to call them artificial or real, the stimuli have moved and will continue to move profits, until it is withdrawn. And the timing of the deployment of the fiscal and monetary stimuli, the timing of its positive effects and the timing of its eventual removal are uncertain.
In addition, we have many short-term uncertainties. The upcoming Group of 20 (G20) meeting has potentially important ramifications for the global financial system and for global currencies. We also will get more data about foreclosures, existing and new home sales and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s (FDIC) funding needs. Finally, we have Damocles' sword hanging over the market with the potential for additional deficit from President Obama's healthcare reform.
So we are going to go for a safe play that enjoys a nice dividend and presents a compelling value proposition right now: Kimberly Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB).
When in doubt, go for consumer staples. And a superbly run Kimberly Clark will do the trick. The stock has overcorrected recently, and the headwinds of soft consumer demand and volatile commodity costs are abating. What's more is that KMB's major source of growth will continue to be emerging economies.
U.S. consumer activity is not as dead as it looks. While unemployment is still climbing, the rate at which people are losing jobs is declining on a consistent basis. Additionally, the pick-up in home sales and in the stock market is helping slowly reverse the negative wealth effect suffered from last year's crash. Programs like "Cash for Clunkers" and tax incentives for purchases of new homes are having a positive effect on those sectors and are generating increased incomes in the industries that benefit from them.
With respect to emerging markets, the situation is even more positive.