The Line In The Sand 9-21 thru 9-25
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Energies For the last 6 weeks Crude oil has been sideways trading in a $10 range and we don't see this changing in the near future. Traders need to be nimble and pick their spots carefully. We prefer buying dips closer to the bottom of the range. Presently clients hold December $75/.80 call spreads. On the November contract the next leg should be determined on a trade above $73 or below $69. Heating oil and RBOB continue to play follow the leader and we have no trade rec's at this time. Natural gas has come alive and those that stayed with their November and December positions should have made some money on the recent 30% explosion in prices. We've advised clients to book partial profits on their positions. We will be looking to get long December or January contracts on a setback of 40-70 cents. We see no reason why the January contract will not see $6/btu in coming weeks.
Livestock Live cattle prices broke lower last week trading to their lowest levels of 09'. This should be viewed as a buying opportunity as we suggest traders to get long December futures with at the money put protection, buy call spreads in February live cattle or price out calendar spreads. See our special cattle report published last week. At this point we would suggest liquidating all profitable longs in lean hogs. We are expecting a setback if prices penetrate the 20 day moving average; in December at 49.85. We will be recommending longs on a further setback thinking we should find next support at 45/46 cents.
Financials
Stocks: Last Thursdays' highs in the Dow and S&P look like a sign of exhaustion and unless new highs are made this week we would expect a correction to follow. For the Dow that level is just below 9800 and on the S&P at 1072. As we've hinted at in the past we are anticipating a move back to the 50 day moving averages, 9200 and 995. Investors who are unwilling to liquidate some of their stock holdings may consider buying ES puts as a way to hedge; November 975 puts $800, December 950 puts $950, December 1050/1000 bear put spreads $900 (as of Monday morning).
Bonds: The story this week in the Treasury complex may be the flow of money. What does that mean? If equities and commodities sell off we would expect money to flow into US dollars and to Treasuries, that being said we may see a temporary bounce. Some clients are currently holding December call spreads and carrying a small loss.
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