Over the
past few months, the rally that investors have experienced needs to be
defined as nothing more than "financial foreplay". Enjoy it while you
can, profit from it what you can, but realize that you are being led
on, and eventually will be dumped.
As long as the market continues to rally, the media will cheer-lead
the gains and parade a host of bullish guests on their shows. As soon
as the market reverses course, bearish guests will appear and the
mantra will change.
The economic news has been spun tighter than "Charlotte's Web". This
spinning gives the appearance of recovery while luring people back into
the stock and real-estate markets where they can lose what little money
that they have left.
I think Don Harrold hit the nail on the head when he said;
CNBC runs a new commercial series these days. It's called;
"September 2008: The Month That Shook The World." Right.
Well, the commercials I want to see would be;
"2007: The Month Our Network Drove People Into Stocks at All Time Highs."
Some contend that the stock markets recent rise has more to do with a
falling U.S. dollar than it does economic fundamentals. The same
comments are being used with the rising price of gold.
Astute observers of economics know that stocks rise about 6 months
before the economy recovers. They also know that interest rates do the
same. If the economic prospects are truly improving, why are interest
rates still at historic lows? Why is the Fed hesitant about hiking
short term rates from (almost) zero, to something higher than 1 percent?
The only conclusion I can come up with is the economy is not in the
midst of a sustainable recovery, and the stock market has gotten way
ahead of itself.
The economic decline caused by the 9-11 attacks in New York drove
the federal funds rate to a multi-decade low of 1% in 2003. The
Executive Branch of the U.S. government called this an act of war, and
military invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan followed.
The economic devastation caused by the investment banks New York did
more economic damage to the U.S. economy than 9-11. This being said,
the U.S. government didn't call this an act of war despite to the
economic destruction, and the harm inflicted on of many of its
citizens.
The Federal Reserve dropped the fed funds rate to a historic low of
0.25 percent, but no investment bank executive went to jail, and none
of were hunted down by the military, and their homes and offices were
not attacked by special forces. What gives?
The fed funds rate has been at the same 0.25% percent since December
2008. Despite what they say, the blame of this economic calamity keeps
shifting away from the real culprits.
Wall Street, is the nation's problem.