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Daily Market Commentary: Sept 21, 2009
By: John Mugarian   Monday, September 21, 2009 12:57 PM

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Over the past few months, the rally that investors have experienced needs to be defined as nothing more than "financial foreplay". Enjoy it while you can, profit from it what you can, but realize that you are being led on, and eventually will be dumped.

As long as the market continues to rally, the media will cheer-lead the gains and parade a host of bullish guests on their shows. As soon as the market reverses course, bearish guests will appear and the mantra will change.

The economic news has been spun tighter than "Charlotte's Web". This spinning gives the appearance of recovery while luring people back into the stock and real-estate markets where they can lose what little money that they have left.

I think Don Harrold hit the nail on the head when he said;

CNBC runs a new commercial series these days. It's called;

"September 2008: The Month That Shook The World." Right.

Well, the commercials I want to see would be;

"2007: The Month Our Network Drove People Into Stocks at All Time Highs."

Some contend that the stock markets recent rise has more to do with a falling U.S. dollar than it does economic fundamentals. The same comments are being used with the rising price of gold.

Astute observers of economics know that stocks rise about 6 months before the economy recovers. They also know that interest rates do the same. If the economic prospects are truly improving, why are interest rates still at historic lows? Why is the Fed hesitant about hiking short term rates from (almost) zero, to something higher than 1 percent?

The only conclusion I can come up with is the economy is not in the midst of a sustainable recovery, and the stock market has gotten way ahead of itself.

The economic decline caused by the 9-11 attacks in New York drove the federal funds rate to a multi-decade low of 1% in 2003. The Executive Branch of the U.S. government called this an act of war, and military invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan followed.

The economic devastation caused by the investment banks New York did more economic damage to the U.S. economy than 9-11. This being said, the U.S. government didn't call this an act of war despite to the economic destruction, and the harm inflicted on of many of its citizens.

The Federal Reserve dropped the fed funds rate to a historic low of 0.25 percent, but no investment bank executive went to jail, and none of were hunted down by the military, and their homes and offices were not attacked by special forces. What gives?

The fed funds rate has been at the same 0.25% percent since December 2008. Despite what they say, the blame of this economic calamity keeps shifting away from the real culprits.

Wall Street, is the nation's problem.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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