US equities pared early losses yesterday but still closed down modestly but it could have been a lot worse. As was the case on Friday, the market struggled for inspiration. This seems to have weighed a little on crude (down $2 overnight), perhaps together with a report from the International Energy Agency which noted that global electricity output is likely to fall this year for the first time since 1945.

For train spotters note that the Dow is just a few points short of a record point gain for any one quarter – the current record is 1,339 points set in the fourth quarter of 1998. The Dow is up 1,332 points for the quarter right now with seven trading sessions remaining.

Stocks on the move today in early trading Stateside include US Steel after an upgrade from Bank of America (BAC) who said that the company may return to profitability in 2010 and basic resources/mining stocks like Newmont and ConocoPhillips as gold, copper and oil prices rose. Macy's is also likely to be in demand following an upgrade to a "buy" at Citibank. But be wary of regional banking names today which may see some selling after influential banking analyst Mike Mayo said that US banks will need more capital to cover credit losses. AIG is the star performer thus far on the back a statement by the Chairman of the House Oversight & Government Reform Committee Edolphus Towns (I kid you not) said he'd give "serious consideration" to a proposal to water down the terms of AIG's $182.5 taxpayer bailout!

Stocks early upward march upward was (temporarily) halted by the second tier US data as both the Richmond Fed's manufacturing survey and the FHFA house price index came in shy of expectations.

Today's Market Moving Stories

• Can the emerging world lead the global economy out of the crisis? Upward growth revisions in Asian growth forecasts from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) overnight will certainly feed those hopes. It now sees 2010 growth in the region at 6.4% (revised from 6%). The ADB sees a V-shape recovery, although it notes continued weakness in external demand and warns that withdrawing stimulus too quickly could cause a double dip.
• And judging by some of the overnight comments there is no sign of that the Anglo Saxon punch bowl being taken away anytime soon. White House economic adviser Summers said "we will not make the mistake of prematurely declaring victory and withdrawing all public support" while UK PM Brown said "the stimulus that we have still got to give the world economy is greater than the stimulus we have already had".
• The Kiwi dollar surged to a 13-month high after dairy exporter Fonterra announced a 12% boost to its forecast payout to farmer shareholders, pointing to strong demand and a recovery in dairy prices. Fonterra, which provides a quarter of the country's exports and accounts for around 40% of the world's dairy trade, has announced a 12% boost to its forecast payout to its 10,500 shareholder-farmers. Reuters notes that this will boost GDP by 0.4% points on a one-off basis. Maybe some long awaited good news for the Irish dairy sector stocks e.g.