What the assembly lacked in substance, it certainly made up in
entertainment value. Highlights included U.S. President Barack Obama
chairing a rare U.N. Security Council meeting, where all members
adopted a toothless resolution on nuclear nonproliferation and
disarmament, a fashionably dressed Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi
delivering a 90-minute monologue on topics ranging from sodomy to the
number of U.S. warships used to invade Grenada in 1983 — and finally, a
charged face-off between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Unsurprisingly, the focus has turned to the growing crisis between Israel and Iran. After a long-winded Wednesday night speech by Ahmadinejad, in which he reiterated Iran's refusal to curb its nuclear program, Netanyahu took the podium Thursday
with a forceful speech that not only condemned the Iranian regime for
its denial of the Holocaust and "dangerous" polices, but also condemned
the rest of the United Nations for allegedly failing to take a stand
against Tehran. In a nutshell, Netanyahu was saying that, given the
track record of failed or nonexistent U.N. resolutions, he does not
trust the Security Council to protect Israel from an existential
threat: a potentially nuclear Iran.
This message is loaded with implications. In less than a week,
leaders from the P-5+1 group – made up of the five permanent U.N.
Security Council states, along with Germany — will be meeting with
Iranian officials to discuss the nuclear program. And so far, the
Iranians have given every indication that they do not intend to concede
enough to satisfy Israel's concerns about the nuclear program. Israel
therefore is left with few options – especially since it appears the
wheels are already coming off the United States' threatened sanctions
regime, which would target Iran's gasoline imports.
The Israelis also understand the Russia factor. Russia is engaged in
an ongoing struggle to win Washington's recognition of its influence in
the former Soviet region. So far, the United States hasn't given Russia
what it wants. Consequently, Russia continues to flaunt the leverage it
has with the United States over its ties to Iran. Not only can Russia
completely destroy the effectiveness of a U.S.- led sanctions regime,
but it can provide Iran with critical weapons systems that could
seriously complicate an attack against Iran down the road. The Israelis
simply are not seeing the value in delaying much longer.
Israel therefore is leaning heavily on the United States to reach
some sort of compromise with Moscow and bring the Russians in line on
the Iran issue.
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev made a statement on Wednesday
that might indicate that such a compromise has a chance — however
slight — of happening. "I told the president of the United States that
we think it necessary to help Iran make the right decision," Medvedev
said, with just the right touch of ambiguity. "As for various types of
sanctions, Russia's position is very simple, and I spoke about it
recently. Sanctions rarely lead to productive results, but in some
cases, the use of sanctions is inevitable. Ultimately, this is a matter
of choice, and we are prepared to continue cooperating with the U.S.
administration on issues relating to Iran's peaceful nuclear program,
as well as other matters."
This is a notable shift in tone coming out of Moscow, but does not
yet signify that a deal has been made between the Americans and the
Russians that would alleviate the crisis over Iran. Our Russian sources
are hinting that something bigger may
be under way, but they also have made it clear that this is just the
beginning of negotiations. One source in particular has indicated that
thus far, Washington is at least considering a Russian demand to
postpone the U.S. deployment of a Patriot air defense battery in
Poland. In return, Moscow would stick to its pledge to delay delivery
of the S-300 strategic air defense system to Iran. In essence, this
would be a mutual commitment to postpone commitment to their strategic
allies.
But, would that be enough to satisfy Israel?
Stratfor is the world’s leading online publisher of geopolitical intelligence. Our global team of intelligence professionals provides our Members with insights into political, economic, and military developments to reduce risks, to identify opportunities, and to stay aware of happenings around the globe.
Click here to join Stratfor's intelligence services.