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Earnings Preview For Oct 5 - 9 - Earnings Preview
By: Zacks Investment Research   Friday, October 02, 2009 2:13 PM

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Third-quarter earnings season officially starts on Wednesday afternoon with Alcoa's (AA) report. The aluminum maker is expected to announce revenues of $4.5 billion and a loss of 11 cents per share.

The results will look awful compared to last year because the commodity bubble peaked in Q308. Joining AA will be 6 other S&P 500 members: Costco (COST), Family Dollar (FDO), Marriott (MAR), Monsanto (MON), Pepsi Bottling (PBG), PepsiCo (PEP) and Yum! Brands (YUM). We have confirmed scheduled reports from a total of 24 companies.

Economic data will largely take a backseat to the earnings news. There is comparatively little on the calendar, with the most newsworthy release being the September ISM services index. The weekly energy and mortgage applications reports could still influence trading, however.

  • Monday: September ISM services survey
  • Wednesday: August consumer credit, September treasury budget, weekly crude inventories, weekly mortgage applications
  • Thursday: August wholesale inventories, weekly initial jobless claims, weekly natural gas inventories
  • Friday: August trade balance

The Fed will hold a conference in Washington D.C. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will provide an update of the Fed's balance sheet on Tuesday evening. Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn will talk about the Fed's response to the financial crisis on Thursday at 12:15 p.m.

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig will make 2 speeches this week. On Tuesday evening, he will appear at an economic forum in Denver. On Thursday evening, he will speak at a similar forum in Oklahoma City.

A 10-year TIPS auction will be held on Monday, a 10-year Treasury note auction will be held on Wednesday and a 30-year Treasury bond auction will be held on Thursday. Overall, the Treasury Department will sell $78 billion in securities this week. Recent auctions have been oversubscribed, signaling strong demand.

After this week's pullback, the markets will be seeking direction. The Dow was trading near the first line of support on Friday morning, though further downside is a possibility. How revenues, earnings and guidance fare relative to expectations will play a role in influencing market direction.

Keep in mind that the majority of earnings reports won't be released until the latter part of the month.

Third-Quarter Earnings

The median S&P 500 company is forecast to report a 15% drop in profits and a 6.9% drop in revenues. (On an average company basis, EPS should drop 36.2% and revenues should fall 9.4%. The average numbers look worse due to the influence of outliers, or companies projected to report very large year-over-year drops.)

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

PepsiCo (PEP) has topped expectations for 2 consecutive quarters by an average margin of 3 cents per share. Though the third-quarter Zacks Consensus Estimate is unchanged at $1.03 per share, a recent revision by 1 brokerage analyst has resulted in a most accurate estimate of $1.04 per share. PepsiCo is scheduled to report on Thursday, Oct 8, before the start of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

Concerns about lower demand for fertilizer prompted 3 analysts to cut their fiscal first-quarter profit projections on Mosaic (MOS) in recent weeks. The downward revisions have pushed the Zacks Consensus Estimate 4 cents lower to 33 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish at 22 cents per share. MOS has missed expectations twice in the past 4 quarters. Mosaic is scheduled to report on Monday, Oct 5, after the close of trading.

Charles Rotblut, CFA is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com.

Earnings Calendar

Here is a list of companies that we have confirmed will report during the week of Oct 5 - 9. Prices are as of Thursday's, Oct 1, market close.

Company Stock Zacks
Estimate
Year Ago
EPS
Last
Qtr
Surprise
Date Time Price
Mosaic Co/The MOS $0.33 $2.65 230.0% 10/5 AMC $46.43
Robbins & Myers RBN $0.20 $0.74 4.0% 10/5 AMC $23.01
Rpm Intl Inc RPM $0.44 $0.54 (2.3%) 10/5 BTO $17.88
Team Inc TISI $0.11 $0.25 31.8% 10/5 AMC $16.80
Angiodynamics ANGO $0.08 $0.09 (6.7%) 10/6 AMC $13.75
Chattem Inc CHTT $1.21 $1.08 4.1% 10/6 BTO $64.90
Pepsi Bottling PBG $1.08 $1.06 6.8% 10/6 BTO $36.49
Yum! Brands Inc YUM $0.59 $0.58 16.28% 10/6 AMC $33.13
Acuity Brands AYI $0.57 $1.02 (5.3%) 10/7 BTO $31.16
Alcoa Inc AA ($0.11) $0.37 31.6% 10/7 AMC $12.92
Costco Whole Cp COST $0.76 $0.92 (3.7%) 10/7 BTO $55.69
Family Dollar FDO $0.41 $0.38 5.1% 10/7 BTO $26.84
Helen Of Troy HELE $0.39 $0.34 34.3% 10/7 BTO $18.70
Kayne Andsn Egy KED $0.22 N/A N/A 10/7 AMC $13.22
Monsanto Co-New MON $0.01 ($0.03) 6.8% 10/7 BTO $75.11
Richardson Elec RELL $0.04 $0.20 (90.9%) 10/7 AMC $5.00
Ruby Tuesday RT $0.10 $0.01 40.0% 10/7 AMC $7.76
Wolverine World WWW $0.55 $0.62 3.8% 10/7 BTO $24.21
Infosys Tec-Adr INFY $0.50 $0.56 17.0% 10/8 AMC $47.25
Intl Speedway ISCA $0.38 $0.73 12.9% 10/8 BTO $27.25
Marriott Intl-A MAR $0.13 $0.34 9.5% 10/8 BTO $26.36
Nu Horizons Ele NUHC ($0.01) $0.01 50.0% 10/8 AMC $3.96
PepsiCo Inc PEP $1.03 $1.06 2.0% 10/8 BTO $58.46
Tortoise Cap Rs TTO ($0.01) ($0.04) (81.3%) 10/9 N/A $6.56

BTO = Before The Market Open, AMC = After The Market Close


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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