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Daily Credit Summary: October 6 - Aussie Rules, Fisk Drools
By: Tyler Durden   Tuesday, October 06, 2009 8:35 PM

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Spreads are mixed in the major indices today as single-names lagged any underperformance intraday and credit notably underperformed equities all day. Aside from very early trading tights in IG12/13, the on-the-runs were unable to break yesterday's tights (while SPY managed to gap up and hold well off yesterday's highs). Intraday ranges in IG and HY remained very muted again despite a pick up in volumes (as talk was of elevated activity in rolls and curves once again).

IG12 ended marginally tighter, IG13 wider, HVOL improving, ExHVOL12 and 13 were weaker, XO stronger, and HY rallying (but only a smidge). IG trades 1.5bps tight (rich) to its 50d moving average, which is a Z-Score of -0.2s.d.. At 111bps, IG has closed tighter on only 18 days so far this year (199 trading days). The last five days have seen IG flat to its 50d moving average. Skews were generally wider today as indices underperformed intrinsics although both HVOL12 and 13 were the exception today as ExHVOL was the worst performing index thanks to HVOL's moves.

Only 19.2% of names in IG moved more than their historical vol would imply as higher vol names underperformed lower vol names by -2.2% to -2.96%. IG's vol is around 4.38% per 1 day period, which leaves 98 names higher vol and 27 lower vol than the index.

The names having the largest impact on IG are Textron Financial Corp (-25bps) pushing IG 0.21bps tighter, and CIT Group Inc (+16.5bps) adding 0.07bps to IG. HVOL is more sensitive with American International Group, Inc. pushing it 0.85bps tighter, and CIT Group Inc contributing 0.32bps to HVOL's change today. The less volatile ExHVOL's move today is driven by both Textron Financial Corp (-25bps) pushing the index 0.27bps tighter, and Fortune Brands Inc. (+3bps) adding 0.03bps to ExHVOL.

The price of investment grade credit rose 0.02% to around 99.53% of par, while the price of high yield credits rose 0.25% to around 95.13% of par. ABX market prices are lower by 0.24% of par or in absolute terms, 0.38%. Broadly speaking, CMBX market prices are lower by 0.93% of par or in absolute terms, 0.27%. Volatility (VIX) is down -1.14pts to 25.65%, with 10Y TSY selling off (yield rising) 3.7bps to 3.26% and the 2s10s curve steepened by 1.4bps, as the cost of protection on US Treasuries fell 0.89bps to 21.5bps. 2Y swap spreads tightened 0.6bps to 34bps, as the TED Spread widened by 2.2bps to 0.22% and Libor-OIS deteriorated 0.2bps to 13.1bps.

The Dollar weakened with DXY falling 0.41% to 76.325, Oil rising $0.59 to $71 (outperforming the dollar as the value of Oil (rebased to the value of gold) fell by 1.57% today (a 0.43% rise in the relative (dollar adjusted) value of a barrel of oil), and Gold increasing $24.9 to $1042.2 as the S&P rallies (1048.8 1.2%) outperforming IG credits (111.5bps 0.02%) while IG, which opened tighter at 111bps, underperforms HY credits.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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