(By
Bob Blandeburgo )Forecasts for holiday retail sales my not exactly be glowing but there's a good chance that Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq:
AMZN) – the world's largest online retailer – will again buck the negative trend that has gripped the retail industry for the past year.
Estimates for holiday retail sales this year range from a 1% gain to a 1% decline, the latter of which would make for the industry's first back-to-back dip on record, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Online sales excluding travel this year are expected to be $156.1 billion, up 10% from 2008's take, according market research firm Forrester Research Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR).
Despite last year being the worst retail environment since at least 1970, Amazon said the 2008 holiday season was its "best ever." The company reported fourth quarter earnings 33% higher than Wall Street estimates. And its sales gain of 4% would have been 20% higher if it weren't for a negative impact from exchange rates.
"Online [shopping] has definitely been impacted by the economy, but remains one of the biggest bright spots in retail," BIGresearch LLC senior analyst Pam Goodfellow told members of the press in a conference call yesterday (Tuesday).
E-commerce sites, often used as a research tool for purchases, may draw consumers in with lower prices.
"If consumers can find a better deal online, they're going to purchase online," Goodfellow said.
FBR Capital Markets Corp. (Nasdaq: FCBM) yesterday raised its price target and earnings estimates for Amazon. FBR anticipates another solid holiday quarter for the e-commerce giant, setting its new price target at $95 a share, up from $85 previously.
Shares of Amazon were up 2.53% to close at $90.91 yesterday.
FBR now expects Amazon revenue for its fiscal year ending December 31 to be $22.75 billion, up slightly from a previous estimate of $22.72 billion.
