Where's The Next Bubble... err, Boom? Maybe 'Cleantech'
By:
TraderMark Wednesday, October 07, 2009 9:30 AM
Judging by the reaction to recent IPO A123 Systems (
AONE) (
Sep 24: A123 Systems - Hype or Hope?) there certainly can be a case made that 'cleantech' has a chance to be one of the bubbles the Federal Reserve creates next. I am not so sure in terms of job creation (solar is now dominated by China, wind we are way behind and there only be so many "battery" companies in the world) but certainly in stock hype.
Via AP
Our economy sure could use the Next Big Thing. Something on the scale of railroads, automobiles or the Internet -- the kind of breakthrough that emerges every so often and builds industries, generates jobs and mints fortunes.
- Silicon Valley investors are pointing to something called cleantech -- alternative energy, more efficient power distribution and new ways to store electricity, all with minimal impact to the environment -- as a candidate for the next boom.
- And while no two booms are exactly alike, some hallmarks are already showing up. Despite last fall's financial meltdown, public and private investments are pouring in, fueling startups and reinvigorating established companies. The political and social climates are favorable. If it takes off, cleantech could seep into every part of the economy and our lives.
- A year into the Great Recession, innovation isn't slowing. This time, it's better batteries, more efficient solar cells, smarter appliances and electric cars, not to mention all the infrastructure needed to support the new ways energy will be generated and the new ways we'll be using it.
Key point on why it's more likely a stock bubble than a job bubble - we just don't like making things that aren't heavy (cars, defense, perhaps a stray wind mill)
- Yet for all the benefits that might be spawned by cleantech breakthroughs, no one knows how many jobs might be created -- or how many old jobs might be cannibalized. It also remains to be seen whether Americans will clamor for any of its products.
- Clean energy projects could simply replace old jobs and functions, like meter-readers. And there's no guarantee new jobs won't shift to countries with cheaper labor. (all you need to do is make them government jobs and then they'll be protected for a few more centuries - boo yah)
- The laser, for instance, was a big innovation, but it wasn't clear at first what it could be used for.
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