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Quick Manhattan Check
By: Noah Rosenblatt   Friday, October 09, 2009 11:36 AM

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A: A quick check for you guys into some of the inventory and activity trends for Manhattan real estate. 
TOTAL ACTIVE INVENTORY TRENDS
Now, to put that into perspective here is the inventory trends dating back to Oct of 2007 (sorry, I dont have time to update the last 5 weeks of data into this longer dated chart - please use the above 6-month recent trend chart for what has happened recently): NEW LISTINGS vs CONTRACTS SIGNED GAP Its useful to take a look at the spread between the weekly average of new listings hitting our marketplace and the number of contracts that are being signed. With a wider gap, we know the market is slowing as new listing trends increase as fewer contracts are signed. When the gap narrows, we know this market is more active as fewer listings are hitting our marketplace and more contracts are being signed. Both of these are a weekly moving average to smooth out the data. When I relaunch UrbanDigs I will enhance the functionality of all these trends to make it much easier to interpret - in addition, the data should be more real time as our source will be directly from the internal Manhattan broker sharing system:

I discussed the interesting signs this section of the chart system was telling us back in August, as it showed the wide gap between new listings and contracts signed activity when the market was frozen in February & March. As the market experienced falling prices, we can see the adjustment in the data and at what time buyers re-entered the market as a result of lower prices and higher confidence in the asset class. As we got to May/June/July/Aug, it was easy to see how contract signed activity picked up big time. For now, it still seems active out there but not nearly as it was during May-August, the four months following the trough of the fast and fierce correction in price levels. Its a new world, and this market adjusted. The concern now is that perhaps there is a disconnect growing once again as seller optimism outpaces buy side confidence after 4-5 months of improving bids. Listen to what the market is saying. If any seller believes they are priced right and has been on the market for 4+ months with no accepted bids, seeing the action that has occurred you must question whether your expectations are a bit off given current market conditions and the adjustment this market experienced. As much as you may have a number in mind, want to minimize a loss on the deal or are anchored to near peak sale level, your property is worth only what someone is both willing & able to pay for it at any given period in time. Real estate will always be an illiquid asset class and emotions sometimes cloud decision making.

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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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