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Maybe Economic Theory Is Wrong
By: The Mess that Greenspan Made   Monday, October 12, 2009 10:00 AM

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I've been meaning to go back and revisit this piece about one of my favorite subjects over the years - owners' equivalent rent - but have so far failed to do so. This first appeared here on September 04, 2008, just over a year ago.

In looking up some data for the previous post on initial jobless claims, this little FAQ about the Consumer Price Index was stumbled upon at the Labor Department. It doesn't say how long it's been there, but it was apparently updated today.

Here's the part that explains the rationale for owners' equivalent rent being included in the inflation statistics in lieu of anything having to do with actual home prices.
The CPI used to include the value of a house in calculating inflation and now they use an estimate of what each house would rent for -- doesn't this switch simply lower the official inflation rate?

No. Until 1983, the CPI measure of homeowner cost was based largely on house prices. The long-recognized flaw of that approach was that owner-occupied housing combines both consumption and investment elements, and the CPI is designed to exclude investment items. The approach now used in the CPI, called rental equivalence, measures the value of shelter to owner-occupants as the amount they forgo by not renting out their homes.

The rental equivalence approach is grounded in economic theory, receives broad support from academic economists and each of the prominent panels, and agencies that have reviewed the CPI, and is the most commonly used method by countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Critics often assume that the BLS adopted rental equivalence in order to lower the measured rate of inflation. It is certainly true that an index based on home prices would be more volatile, and might move differently from other CPI indexes over any given time period. However, when it was first introduced, rental equivalence actually increased the rate of change of the CPI shelter index, and in the long run there is no evidence that the CPI method yields lower inflation rates than some other alternatives.

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